India’s cotton production for the 2025-26 crop year starting October is likely to be higher than last year, despite a dip in area on higher yields. Cotton sowing has been impacted this year in the top two producing States of Gujarat and Maharashtra, where a section of farmers have shifted to other remunerative crops such as groundnut and maize.
“Cotton crop conditions are very excellent this year. Very rarely, we see all the 10 growing States having satisfactory rain. As on today, the area coverage is lagging by around 3 per cent. Last year same time, the cotton area was 110 lakh hectares and this year sowing is completed on around 107 lakh hectares. Though the sowing is lower, we are expecting better yields, which are likely to improve by 10 per cent,” said Atul Ganatra, President, Cotton Association India (CAI), the apex trade body.
Ganatra attributes the improved yields to the timely monsoon rains, which started in the first week of June, the ideal time for sowing. Compared to last year, the sowing is early by 15 days this year. “The plants are lush green this year. If everything goes well, we may get 10 per cent higher yield, which may result in higher production of 325-330 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) easily,” the CAI President said based on the latest feedback from cotton trade bodies across the country. For the current 2024-25 season ending September, CAI is projecting an output of 311 lakh bales.
South surprise
The southern States of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will spring a surprise this year, Ganatra said. “Karnataka is having 18-20 per cent extra sowing and the crop is very good over there. They are expecting a crop of 30 lakh bales in Karnataka compared to this year’s 24 lakh bales. In Telangana, the sowing is up by over 5 per cent at 44 lakh acres compared to last year’s 41 lakh acres. Similarly, Andhra Pradesh is also having a 25 per cent higher sowing as a section of tobacco and chilli farmers have turned to cotton because of higher minimum support price and Cotton Corporation of India had done big purchases in AP this year,” Ganatra said.
“We may get from South alone, about 1 crore bales from Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Odisha, which will be a record. This year, the production was around 87 lakh bales,” Ganatra said.
In Central India, from where we get around 200 lakh bales, sowing this kharif has reduced by 10 per cent in Gujarat and by around 3-4 per cent in Maharashtra. The decline in area is mainly in the Khandesh region of Maharashtra, while the area has been maintained in Vidarbha and Marathawada has maintained the sowing area. In Khandesh, the crop was down at 9 lakh bales during 2024-25 over previous year’s 15 lakh bales.
“In North India, crop conditions are excellent. This year, they got around 28.5 lakh bales. Next season, the North is expecting 38 lakh bales crop,” Ganatra said. Area has increased a bit in Rajasthan, while in Haryana it has reduced. In Punjab, the sowing is same as that of last year, but crop conditions are good.
Yields may rise
Ramanuj Das Boob, Vice-President of All India Cotton Brokers Association, and a sourcing agent in Raichur, said the yields will be better this year, which should help increase the total output. “Timely rains and timely sowing has helped the crop this year, which is in good condition,” Das Boob said adding that the market arrivals will start early this year.
Anand Popat of Cotyarn Tradelink LLP in Gujarat said overall sowing may be down by 2-4 per cent, but the crop condition is good and there’s a possibility of yield increase. However, it is too early to comment on the crop size, which will be subject to weather conditions going ahead. “The crop is likely to be around 330 lakh bales, plus or minus 5 per cent, subject to weather conditions,” Popat said.
However, the US Department of Agriculture — in its latest projections this week on the world supply, use and trade — has pegged India’s cotton output at 5.11 million tonnes for 2025-26, down from its estimate of 5.22 million tonnes for 2024-25.
Published on August 15, 2025
