The chaos that has gripped the oil market looks set to deepen in the coming days, with more production being shut off as the war in Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed to tankers, and the US considers widening its range of targets in the country.
The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have already started reducing oil production as storage runs down, joining Iraq.
Others may be forced to follow as oil tankers continue avoiding the narrow waterway, rapidly reducing the number of empty ones available for loading.
Once all the tankers are loaded, the region’s remaining on-land storage will fill even quicker.
The upheaval, now in its ninth day, shows no sign of imminent resolution, meaning a strip of water that normally handles a fifth of the world’s oil is impassable for commercial ships. About a third of the region’s production can theoretically bypass Hormuz, with Saudi Arabia already diverting huge amounts of crude to its Red Sea coast for export.
Iran has vowed not to back down in the face of US and Israeli strikes that began on Feb. 28. President Donald Trump responded on Saturday by saying the US would now consider targeting areas and groups of people in Iran that were not previously aimed for.
The attacks will continue “until they surrender or, more likely, completely collapse!” he said in a social media post.
For oil analysts, executives and traders, that has meant ever-louder warnings that the war is bringing crude to a tipping point, and closer to the psychological $100-a-barrel threshold. Brent already climbed 30% last week — its biggest jump in six years, putting it just dollars from that mark.
Other markers tied closely to the region have already soared through that level. Futures tied to Abu Dhabi’s flagship Murban crude closed at $103 a barrel on Friday, while Oman crude futures were at $107. Chinese crude oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange ended, in US dollar terms, at $109.
“Every additional day of disruption adds pressure, and in that scenario there is effectively no ceiling to prices in the short term,” said former trader Stefano Grasso, a senior portfolio manager at Singapore-based fund 8VantEdge Pte.
For one, there are growing threats to oil infrastructure — raising the risk of disruptions that could outlast attacks in the area. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones that were heading toward the 1-million-barrel-a-day Shaybah oil field over the weekend. Strikes in Bahrain and Qatar have also continued.
There is also the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past days, only Iran-linked tankers and two bulk carriers, which claimed to be Chinese-owned, have been seen transiting.
The US has promised to bolster financial protection and potentially provide military escorts, and announced on Friday that it would roll out maritime reinsurance for the Persian Gulf region. The facility will cover losses up to about $20 billion “on a rolling basis”, according to a statement.
For shipowners and charterers operating in the region, however, the cost of insurance is not the major concern holding up traffic. Instead, they worry about the safety of vessels and crew, and say they would need full naval escort — along the lines of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a coalition to safeguard shipping in the Red Sea — or preferably an end to hostilities.
Other US moves to dampen oil price increases include allowing India to access Russian oil currently held in floating storage in the region. Washington has also floated tapping its strategic petroleum reserve or even intervening in futures markets — officials have since downplayed these ideas, while Trump has brushed off inflationary worries even as US gasoline prices spike.
“This is an excursion,” he said on Saturday. “We figured oil prices would go up, which they will, they’ll also come down, they’ll come down very fast.”
Import-dependent Asia, which leans heavily on the Middle East, is feeling the most immediate pain.
In Japan — which takes over 90 per cent of its crude from the region — refiners are asking for the option of drawing on national oil reserves. Others, including China, have curbed fuel exports to preserve supply and keep domestic prices controlled.
South Korea is considering reinstating an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years, state news agency Yonhap reported on Sunday, citing government officials.
In northwest Europe, meanwhile, the price of jet fuel soared to an all-time high of $1,528 a ton — the equivalent of more than $190 a barrel — on Thursday, according to figures from General Index that go back to 2008. The impact on jet fuel is particularly sharp because half of the European Union’s imports typically pass through Hormuz.
For analysts at ING Groep NV, the base case is now four weeks of disruption — two of full upheaval and two weeks of 50%, said Warren Patterson, the bank’s head of commodities strategy in Singapore.
“This scenario doesn’t necessarily mean that we see a full end to the conflict in this time period,” he said. “But if US and Israeli strikes degrade Iran’s ability to attack vessels and enforce a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we could see flows starting to normalize.”
The bank’s most dramatic scenario is a three-month, full disruption to oil and liquefied natural gas flows. This would likely see oil prices spiking to records through the second quarter, the bank’s analysts wrote in a note.
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Published on March 8, 2026
