According to a Nomura note dated March 22, industrial diesel prices were increased to ₹109.59 per litre from ₹87.57 per litre on March 20, marking a jump of about 25 per cent. However, the retail diesel price in Delhi continued to stay flat at ₹87.57 per litre.
Industrial diesel accounts for around 13 per cent of total diesel sold in India, based on Nomura’s estimates and discussions with company managements. Key users include Indian Railways, state transport undertakings, mining firms, infrastructure and construction companies, manufacturing units, captive power plants and telecom towers.
OMCs may still be under-recovering on industrial diesel
Despite the steep hike, Nomura said OMCs are likely to continue losing money on diesel sales to industrial users because the total cost to the marketing segment remains significantly higher.
The brokerage estimated that the effective diesel cost for OMCs’ marketing segment is currently above ₹140 per litre, after factoring in refinery transfer price, excise duty, value-added tax and dealer margins.
Even so, the rise in bulk diesel prices is expected to improve blended marketing margins by around ₹2 per litre, offering partial support to earnings.
Ebitda impact on OMCs
Nomura estimates the move could have an Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) impact of around ₹12,200 crore for IOCL, ₹7,600 crore for BPCL and ₹6,700 for HPCL.
Premium petrol price also raised
Nomura said the move is unlikely to materially affect OMC earnings, as premium petrol caters to only a small, low-single-digit share of the market. The estimated impact on financials is less than 1 per cent at the Ebitda level.
Jet fuel prices may rise sharply from April 1
Nomura also flagged the possibility of a sharp increase in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices from April 1, given the spike in international jet fuel prices.
ATF prices in Delhi are currently at ₹96,638 per kilolitre for March, but at prevailing international prices and local tax rates, Nomura estimates the breakeven level is closer to ₹160,000 per kilolitre.
It said discussions are underway among OMCs, the government and airlines, and a partial pass-through of higher costs may be considered to avoid a significant burden on end consumers.
Since February 27, 2026, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) shares fell 16 per cent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by the analysts in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
