The entry of BJP backed candidate, Satish Nandal for the upcoming Rajya Sabha election for two seats from Haryana will put the unity and integrity of 37 Congress MLAs under scrutiny while putting the leadership of Congress Legislature Party (CLP) leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda to a critical test in what could turn out to be a closely watched contest.
Three candidates – Sanjay Bhatia of the BJP, Karamvir Singh Boudh of the Congress and Satish Nandal as an independent – filed their nominations on Thursday, the last date for filing nominations, for the two Upper House berths that will fall vacant on April 9 following the end of the terms of BJP MPs, Ram Chander Jangra and Kiran Choudhry.
Unless Nandal withdraws his nomination by March 9 or one of the three candidates’ nominations gets rejected during scrutiny, polling will take place on March 16 with counting to be held the same evening.
As per the formula devised for the Rajya Sabha polls, 31 votes each would be required for the two candidates to make it to the Upper House of Parliament from Haryana. The Haryana Assembly has 90 MLAs.
In ideal circumstances, the ruling BJP with 48 votes and the Congress with 37 votes are set to secure one seat each without the need for a contest. However, the contest becomes complex if it turns into a three-horse race.
BJP backed Nandal can’t win without Congress support
The candidature of Satish Nandal, designated as one of the state vice presidents of Haryana BJP, was proposed by three independents and seven BJP MLAs. Electoral arithmetic suggests that the BJP backed independent candidate cannot win unless eight Congress MLAs cross vote. The anti defection law does not apply in Rajya Sabha polls. Political parties, though, can take disciplinary action against errant MLAs.
For Nandal to sail through, he would need 17 second preference votes of the BJP, three votes of the independent MLAs, two votes of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and at least eight votes of the Congress MLAs. INLD chief Abhay Chautala told HT that they haven’t given the prospects of supporting Nandal a thought.
“It is too high a number for effecting a cross vote in favour of Nandal. The BJP backed independent can possibly win only if a certain number of Congress MLAs cross vote, abstain or their ballots are declared invalid. But then Haryana is quite notorious for such political harakiri,’’ said a former election official.
Nandal who contested the 2019 assembly election from Garhi-Sampla Kiloi constituency in Rohtak on a BJP symbol and lost to Congress leader, Bhupinder Singh Hooda by over 58,000 votes told HT that he would reach out to both the Congress and INLD MLAs to vote for him.
When it was pointed out that if Congress MLAs extended support to him, their own party candidate would lose the poll, Nandal said, “See, it is an election. They (Congress) MLAs are also my brethren. Personal relations also matter a lot.” The independent candidate would need much more than personal equations to win the second seat.
