Russia is ready to divert oil to India to offset Middle East supply disruptions, with
about 9.5 million barrels of Russian crude in vessels near
Indian waters and able to arrive within weeks, an industry
source with direct knowledge told Reuters.
The source declined to say where the non-Russian fleet
cargoes were originally headed but said they could deliver to
India within weeks, giving refiners rapid relief.
India is vulnerable to supply shocks, with crude stocks
covering only about 25 days of demand, while refiners hold
similarly limited inventories of gasoil, gasoline and liquefied
petroleum gas.
An Indian government source said New Delhi was scouting for
alternative supply to prepare for continuing conflict in the
Middle East beyond 10–15 days.
FORCED TO SEEK ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY
The disruption has immediate market consequences, with about
40% of India’s crude imports moving through the Strait of
Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil export route, the source
said, and the near-closure of the route has compelled the No.3
oil consumer to seek alternatives.
Indian refiners process about 5.6 million barrels per day of
crude. The Strait has become inaccessible after vessels were
struck by Iranian attacks that followed U.S. and Israeli strikes
on Iran-based targets that commenced on Saturday.
The industry source, speaking on condition of anonymity,
said Russia was ready to help India meet up to 40% of its crude
needs.
India’s imports of Russian crude fell to about 1.1 million
barrels per day in January, the lowest since November 2022, as
New Delhi sought relief from U.S. tariffs, pushing Moscow’s
share of overall oil imports down to 21.2%, industry data
showed. The source said the share climbed back to around 30% in
February.
Indian refiners are in regular contact with traders selling
Russian crude, but any increase in intake from Moscow would
depend on guidance from the government as trade talks with the
United States continue, two refining sources said.
U.S. President Donald Trump last month agreed to drop
punitive tariffs levied on imports from India over its purchase
of Russian oil, saying New Delhi had agreed to “stop buying
Russian oil.”
India has not done so, insisting its strategy was to
diversify supply in line with market conditions and “evolving
international dynamics.”
India’s foreign and oil ministries, as well as the Russian
embassy in New Delhi, did not immediately respond to a request
for comment on any higher purchases from Russia. An Indian
source said days before the Iran war that Indian companies had
not been told to shun Russian oil.
‘A SELLER’S MARKET’ FOR OIL
While Russian oil has been sold at a discount to global
prices since the country invaded Ukraine in 2022, that will now
narrow as “it’s become a sellers’ market,” the industry source
with knowledge of Russian oil trade said.
The source said Russia was also ready to sell liquefied
natural gas to India after top supplier Qatar halted production
on Monday as the conflict widened.
Indian companies have reduced gas supplies to some
industrial customers to manage the shortfall, Reuters has
reported.
Both China and India, Asia’s biggest energy consumers,
source about half their crude imports from the Middle East, but
India holds far less in storage than China and is more exposed
to regional supply shocks as Russian purchases fell under U.S.
pressure.
Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. Navy could escort oil tankers
through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, and ordered the U.S.
International Development Finance Corporation to provide
political risk insurance and guarantees for Gulf shipping.
Published on March 4, 2026
