What would it take for you to relocate to another city for work? The weather of Bengaluru, infrastructure of Hyderabad, food of Delhi, beaches of Chennai, warmth of Punekars and professionalism of Mumbai — all wrapped in a single city? That sure sounds like an impossible dream. Going by LinkedIn data on white-collar worker migration of the last 12 months, it becomes clear why talent migration to high-quality jobs is inevitable and continuous.
Big six
Six cities saw a higher influx of skilled talent compared to what they lost. Bengaluru, Delhi NCR, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Pune, and Chennai are favoured by experienced white-collar professionals. Cumulatively, the six cities attracted 2.76 lakh knowledge workers. In the past 30 months, 120 marquee MNCs set up global capability centres in these cities, drawing a large number of skilled tech and finance workers with offers of attractive roles and pay, spurring the local economies positively.
Global migration
Looking beyond India, at the politics playing out in the UK and the US over immigrants, a look at the economics of talent migration is warranted. Cross-border migration annually generates economic output of around $9 trillion, which could more than double by 2050, according to a report by BCG, in collaboration with the International Organization for Migration. More than 280 million people, or 3.6 per cent of the global population, live outside their country of birth. Together, they would form the fourth-largest country by population.
In 2020, 28 per cent of the 2,000 largest publicly listed companies in the world disclosed the citizenship of their board members and executive leadership team. Nearly 26 per cent of the board-level executives were from a foreign country. The global shortage of workers, which peaked in mid-2022, was most pronounced in the US, China, Germany, the UK, and Canada. In the world’s 30 largest economies, BCG found 30 million open jobs. Across skills, labour shortages cost these countries more than $1.3 trillion a year.
Favourite global cities
Which country or city is most preferred by migrant workers? In 2023, BCG and The Stepstone Group surveyed 1,50,735 people aged 20-40 in 188 countries, of whom three-quarter had at least a bachelor’s degree. Australia has risen through the ranks since 2014 to top the list of desirable countries in 2024 — about half a million people moved there during 2022-23. Canada, the US, Germany and the UK follow closely.
Quality of jobs, quality of life, climate, income tax, cost of living, safety, stability, security and a welcoming culture and inclusiveness were the top criteria for those migrating. London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and New York led among cities.
It’s difficult for India to create jobs for the one crore-plus graduates it churns out each year. As of 2024, over 35 million Indians were living across the world, including over 15 million non-resident Indians (NRIs). Moreover, 5.1 lakh white-collar talent with at least one year of work experience moved out of India in the past year. In 2024, of the nearly $900 billion remittances globally, India received a record $129.1 billion.
Domestic migration
Today, south India has about 20 per cent of India’s population and contributes about 31 per cent of India’s GDP. As per the National Commission of Population, the southern states are projected to have median ages above 37 by 2036, with some (like Tamil Nadu and Kerala) crossing 40. This shows that southern India is ageing rapidly, with lower fertility rates and longer life expectancy.
In contrast, northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh are projected to have younger populations by 2036, of median age 28-32. This could lead to a larger workforce migration from the north to the south, unless GDP growth and job creation improves drastically in the north.
Wages vs profits
The recent observation by the L&T Chairman about slowing workforce migration and attrition is noteworthy. Migration and attrition are the highest at the bottom of the pyramid. Many firms pay less than living wage at entry level, due to excess supply of manpower. Even in IT, entry-level salaries have stagnated for decades due to oversupply of engineering graduates. Is there a viable economic model to pay higher wages, leading to lower attrition and higher productivity? If white-collar workers are moving to cities for more pay, is this true for blue-collar too?
Every minute, 25-30 Indians migrate to cities from rural areas in search of better livelihoods and lifestyles. At this pace, urban population may touch 600 million by 2030. However we may feel about this, migration is our common future, as Anne Gallagher said.
(Kamal Karanth is co-founder of Xpheno, a specialist staffing firm)
