The two-week ceasefire declared by the US President Donald Trump is expected to help ease supplies of LPG and LNG to India, even as it will take months for crude oil and refined product flows to normalise.
Besides, the development is bearish for crude oil and product prices in the short term.
Prashant Vasisht, Senior VP & Co-Group Head of Corporate Ratings at ICRA, said “The announcement of ceasefire in West Asia provides much needed relief to the domestic oil and gas sector given the high reliance on West Asia for supplies. While crude and product flows may take months to normalize, some supplies would start for crude oil and petroleum products like naphtha, LPG, thereby alleviating the immediate shortage.”
Additionally, with the prospect of supplies recommencing from the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), crude oil and LPG prices have eased thereby reducing the pressure on marketing margins and LPG under recoveries of oil marketing companies, he added.
Apart from crude oil, natural gas supplies are urgently needed for sectors such as fertilisers, however supplies may take weeks to commence, apart from stranded cargoes. Nevertheless, prospects of supply commencing would ease pressure on prices of natural gas and fertiliser inputs which would reduce the fertiliser subsidy burden for GoI, Vasisht explained.
“However, sustenance of ceasefire and resumption of traffic through Strait of Hormuz would remain key monitorables for oil and gas markets to normalise,” he emphasised.
US President Donald Trump’s announcement late April 7 of a two-week ceasefire with Iran is BEARISH for near-term oil prices as it removes the immediate threat of military escalation as per S&P Global Energy.
“Normalised trade flows are far from certain, and hostilities could resume at any time. The market shouldn’t assume an immediate return to pre-crisis conditions,” said James Bambino, Senior Principal Analyst Oil Trading Research, at S&P Global Energy.
Zhuwei Wang, Director of research & analysis at S&P Global Energy, said that the focus is presently on SoH, but stated goals from the Trump Administration have ranged from nuclear concerns, regime change, as well as reopening Hormuz. This near-term resolution is optimistic, but it alone does not fully address the underlying geopolitical tensions undergirding oil prices.
“Presuming traffic begins to flow through Hormuz, trade flow normalisation will take months, not weeks. Demand destruction—already underway—will likely continue despite the ceasefire. The bigger concern is what happens after reopening. It is likely that Hormuz will face persistent threats (Houthis, other proxy forces) for the foreseeable future,” he added.
The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is bearish for global natural gas and LNG prices as it is the strongest indication of halting the conflict so far, but a final agreement is still pending and there are many variables around a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, said Eric Yep, Senior principal analyst for First Take Gas at S&P Global Energy CERA.
“Over the next few days, once companies are confident of safe passage, laden LNG carriers within the strait will evacuate quickly, but a more definitive termination of hostilities will be needed to start bringing back LNG production and restore calm among Asian countries impacted by fuel shortages and rationing,” added Yep.
A number of backchannel discussions are also happening between Iran and other countries (GCC and other Asian states) that will help normalise the situation. The recent aborted attempt by two LNG carriers with Qatari cargoes to transit Hormuz and the successful transit of a Japan-linked LNG carrier suggest dialogues are in progress.
“The coming weeks will determine the post-war balance of power and security arrangements in the Middle East under which its oil and gas sector now evolves, which could be very different from before. For LNG markets, Qatar’s role in this new equilibrium and how it decides to frame its reevaluated foreign policy framework will be critical to restoring investor confidence in its LNG expansion,” said Yep.
Published on April 8, 2026
