How is the job market this year? This is a question I am confronted with every January. Every year, I end up answering, “depends on the pond in which you are fishing”. The impact of AI, the geopolitical headwind thanks to the new US regime, the effect of the new labour codes, India’s strong GDP growth, and the deluge of greenfield global capability centres (GCCs) all have a combined influence on the creation of new jobs in India.
Jobs catch a cold
Among the many things that Covid bequeathed to us is a marker to demarcate time and trends as pre- and post-pandemic. The talent market also underwent multiple shape-shifts in the post-lockdown period, allowing us to compare job trends prior to the pandemic. After crashing to a record low of 1,32,000 active openings during the early stage of the pandemic in June 2020, the hiring juggernaut started rolling post vaccination and active demand went up to 3,25,000 openings in January 2022. However, in July 2022 the trajectory dropped as fast as it had climbed, as the global funding winter set in, combined with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a late realisation by many IT majors that they had over-hired. Recruiting activity in key talent sectors caught a cold by 2023, and hasn’t recovered since.
Source: Xpheno
2026… a slow start?
If we were to call 2021 and 2022 as statistically dream years of hiring, the period since has not been that bad either. January 2023 began with 2,72,000 active job openings, and 2024 opened at 2,65,000. Then 2025 started strong with a promising 3,10,000 active talent demand. But January 2026 has opened with the second lowest active talent demand since Jan 2021 — 2,00,000 openings. The IT and BFSI sectors have traditionally been the biggest enablers, by far, of new jobs. But last year, BFSI was almost flat at less than 1 per cent growth in new FTE (full-time equivalent) additions. IT services companies, in the first nine months of this financial year, have remained flat as far as employee additions are concerned. If you are out in the job market and your job-seeking emails or calls are not being returned, please note that the current openings are at near pandemic lows.
Expensive year
Along with a record low start on active openings, 2026 is also showing signs of being an expensive year for enterprises to hold and expand talent. The recently announced labour code reforms are a great start to formalising and strengthening and securing the workforce in the long term. However, the new salary structure amendments have hit enterprises at a not-so-appropriate time in the market. The top five IT services companies have already, between them, declared about ₹5,000 crore increase in salary costs. Key sectors like IT, which are top talent absorbers, have been tackling the vagaries of margin pressures, thanks to tariffs, lower discretionary spending, heightened visa scrutiny, offshoring restrictions and onslaught of GCCs. Low revenue visibility would affect their spending on employees.
Increments
For employers, being generous during the increment cycle amid a global turmoil will be the last thing on their minds. This also means the push factor to look for a job that gives a significant pay hike is a stronger consideration for employees, which can drive up attrition at the entry level in some companies or sectors.
So, where are the jobs?
The 2,00,000 active openings in the market are split as 1,03,000 in tech and the rest in non-tech jobs. At an active demand of 50,000 openings, the IT services cohort is seeing record lows and the outlook remains dull, unless Uncle Sam turns friendly again. The software products cohort can offer hope with 30,000 openings, but it definitely is not in the pink of health. Startups remain cautious… at just 15,000 active openings. BFSI offers hope with over 20,000 openings, but this is well below its peak demand.
For the one crore-plus fresh talent that will graduate into the job market later this year, there just aren’t enough jobs getting added. January 2026 has seen the lowest count for entry-level jobs in the last six years, at 42,000 openings.
Geographically, the jobs remain concentrated in the metros and megacities, and tier-2 and -3 locations offer 59,000 openings.
The GCC promise
The tech industry is still reasonably placed as far as new jobs are concerned. The 85 greenfield GCCs that set up shop in India last year and the 150 that came in the preceding two years have added 150,000 new jobs to the GCC employee base, swelling it to two million.
With another 100 GCCs expected to set up shop in 2026, 1,00,000-plus new jobs are likely to be added within the GCC world. Beyond this segment, it may be a year where employees may need to be less adventurous in job hunting.
This is a year where the skills, salary, and location frictions would test job-hoppers’ intentions. If I were you, I would stay put for better times to return.
(Kamal Karanth is co-founder of Xpheno, a specialist staffing firm)
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Published on January 19, 2026
