Axis Capital initiates coverage on Meesho with 'Buy'; sees 39% upside

Axis Capital initiates coverage on Meesho with 'Buy'; sees 39% upside



Axis Capital has initiated coverage on Meesho with a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹195, implying 39 per cent upside from its previous close. The brokerage believes Meesho is well placed to benefit from e-com growth driven by rising tier 2 penetration, leveraging its value play and ‘affordability’ flywheel to drive user growth and order frequency.

 


Brokerage estimates India’s e-commerce market could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20 per cent over the next five years, driven largely by expanding adoption in tier-2 cities and beyond, where affordability remains a key purchase driver.

 


Market leadership in value commerce


Analysts noted that Meesho, with around 250 million annual transacting users (ATUs), has emerged as India’s largest e-commerce player by user base and is particularly strong in unbranded and long-tail categories.

 


Its strategy has been to improve affordability by passing on cost efficiencies—especially in logistics—to sellers, enabling them to offer cheaper products to consumers. This, in turn, helps the platform deepen penetration and improve order frequency.


Tier-2+ expansion to power growth


According to Axis Capital, Meesho’s total addressable market could reach around 580 million users by FY30 across urban and rural India, with the platform potentially capturing around 8 per cent of spending in its key categories.

 


The brokerage highlighted that Mercado Libre and Pinduoduo show continued growth in users and order frequency is possible despite high penetration.


Advertising seen as a key profit lever


Advertising is expected to emerge as an important monetisation driver for Meesho as the platform scales.

 


With around 9,00,000 sellers on the platform, analysts believe Meesho is well placed to improve ad monetisation because of its strong unbranded assortment, high order frequency, clear attribution for sellers, and discovery-led shopping model.

 


They estimate advertising revenue could grow from around 3 per cent of net merchandise value (NMV) currently to about 6 per cent by FY30.


Competition seen structurally constrained


Brokerage checks suggest Meesho currently holds a pricing advantage over rivals such as Amazon Bazaar and Shopsy.

 


According to the analysis, these competing platforms are constrained by seller base, catalogue mix, and fulfilment economics that are inherited from higher average selling price models. On a 19-product comparison basket costing around ₹1,600, Meesho was found to be 31-37 per cent cheaper.


Profitability outlook improves


Analysts expect Meesho’s affordability-led model to support a 29 per cent net merchandise value (NMV) CAGR over FY26 to FY30, while revenue could grow at a CAGR of 25 per cent over the same period.

 


Adjusted Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin is projected to expand to 3.1 per cent by FY30, improving by 620 basis points (bps), driven by operating leverage and better monetisation. The company’s asset-light structure and negative working capital cycle are also seen as supportive of free cash flow generation.


Key risks remain


Analysts caution that risks to the outlook include slower-than-expected growth in annual transacting users and seller additions, logistics costs not declining as anticipated, and weaker-than-expected improvement in ad monetisation.

 


Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by the analysts/brokerage are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.



Source link

Indian stock markets only loser among EMs in FY26: What lies ahead?

Indian stock markets only loser among EMs in FY26: What lies ahead?


The Indian stock market was the only emerging market (EM) that declined in the 2025-2026 financial year (FY26). Bloomberg data shows that the BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 slipped over 7 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, in the previous financial year, compared to far stronger returns posted by other emerging market peers.

 


By comparison, Taiwan’s Taiex gained 58.82 per cent, South Korea’s Kospi surged 113.27 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei climbed 48.57 per cent, China’s CSI 300 rose 14.4 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 9.68 per cent in FY26.

 

The MSCI India index also slipped 3.57 per cent during the period, compared to MSCI EM’s 26.86 per cent surge, largely dragged by foreign institutional investors’ (FIIs) selloff.

 
 


Going ahead, analysts believe the probability of another year of relative underperformance remains high, unless earnings improve meaningfully, crude stabilises, and foreign flows return.

 


“A recovery is possible, but it will depend on stronger macro visibility and better corporate earnings delivery,” said Abhinav Tiwari, research analyst, Bonanza .


Why India returns trailed EMs in FY26


According to Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Investments, FIIs adopted a risk-off stance toward India in FY26 due to its premium valuations relative to other emerging markets.

 


The MSCI India index’s P/E stood at 24.33x at the beginning of FY26, compared to MSCI EM’s P/E of 14.88x. These relatively expensive valuations triggered ₹3.31-trillion selloff by FIIs in FY26.

 


“The selling pressure intensified more recently as India’s sensitivity to crude prices came back into focus amid the West Asia conflict,” he said.

 

 


Additionally, Thomas V Abraham, research analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan, reckoned that earnings disappointment amid geopolitical shifts also capped India returns.

 


“Prior to 2025, premium valuations were more policy-fuelled, expected to lead to earnings gains. However, on account of various shifts in the geopolitical scenario and lack of clarity on trade deals—amongst other factors—earnings have not picked up as expected,” said Abraham.

 


He added: In fact, the Nifty50’s 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) growth, at present, for the next two years is projected at approximately 14 per cent. If elevated crude prices and a strengthening US dollar persist, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be trimmed, potentially dragging next year’s earnings growth down toward the 10-per cent mark.


Valuation risks persist


Even after the correction, analysts see India’s valuation at a premium to other EMs, although that gap has started to narrow from historical averages.

 


“Indian stocks maintain a 1.5-2x P/E premium over EM averages, prompting flows to undervalued options like Brazil, Korea, or EM tech during risk-on phases,” said Abraham.

 


Bloomberg data shows MSCI India’s P/E ratio has eased to 22.34x now, while MSCI EM’s P/E ratio has risen to 16.6x from a year ago. This means India may look cheaper relative to its own history, but not necessarily cheap relative to EM peers.


Market outlook FY27


That said, while analysts see near-term EM earnings outpacing India, they expect a reversal of India’s underperformance only if FIIs return.

 


This, they said, is likely on a sustainable basis when global rates peak, the rupee stabilises, and India offers clearer structural stories in tech and trade that can compete with the US and China.

 


“Valuation premiums have now moderated toward long-term averages. While FII selling may stabilise over the medium term, near-term flows will depend on the duration of the conflict and potential downgrades to FY27 earnings,” said Nair.

 


Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects a reversal in the next 4 to 6 quarters, with valuations likely to pick up ahead of an anticipated earnings recovery in the second half of 2026.  Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by the analysts/brokerage are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

 



Source link

कूपर कोनोली ने 44 गेंदों में नाबाद 72 रन बनाकर खेली तूफानी पारी, पंजाब किंग्स ने गुजरात टाइटंस

कूपर कोनोली ने 44 गेंदों में नाबाद 72 रन बनाकर खेली तूफानी पारी, पंजाब किंग्स ने गुजरात टाइटंस


पंजाब किंग्स ने इंडियन प्रीमीयर लीग (आईपीएल) 2026 में जीत के साथ अपने अभियान की शुरुआत की है. इस टीम ने मंगलवार को मुल्लांपुर के महाराजा यादविन्द्र सिंह अंतरराष्ट्रीय क्रिकेट स्टेडियम में खेले गए मुकाबले में गुजरात टाइटंस के विरुद्ध 3 विकेट से जीत हासिल की. किंग्स की तरफ से कूपर कोनोली ने 44 गेंदों में नाबाद 72 रन की तूफानी पारी खेली.

टॉस गंवाकर बल्लेबाजी करने उतरी गुजरात टाइटंस ने 6 विकेट खोकर 162 रन बनाए. साई सुदर्शन ने कप्तान शुभमन गिल के साथ पहले विकेट के लिए 3.4 ओवरों में 37 रन की साझेदारी की. सुदर्शन 13 रन बनाकर पवेलियन लौटे, जिसके बाद गिल ने जोस बटलर के साथ दूसरे विकेट के लिए 46 रन जुटाकर टीम को मजबूती प्रदान की.

गिल 27 गेंदों में 6 चौकों के साथ 39 रन बनाकर पवेलियन लौटे. यहां से जोस बटलर ने ग्लेन फिलिप्स के साथ 36 रन जोड़कर टीम को शतक के पार पहुंचा दिया. बटलर 38 रन और फिलिप्स 25 रन बनाकर आउट हुए. इनके अलावा, वाशिंगटन सुंदर ने 18 रन का योगदान टीम के खाते में दिया.

विपक्षी खेमे से विजयकुमार वैशाक ने सर्वाधिक 3 विकेट हासिल किए, जबकि युजवेंद्र चहल ने 2 विकेट निकाले. 1 विकेट मार्को जानसेन ने अपने नाम किया.

इसके जवाब में पंजाब किंग्स ने 19.1 ओवरों में जीत हासिल कर ली. इस टीम ने 7 के स्कोर पर प्रियांश आर्य (7) का विकेट खो दिया था. यहां से कूपर कोनोली ने प्रभसिमरन सिंह के साथ दूसरे विकेट के लिए 49 गेंदों में 76 रन की साझेदारी करते हुए टीम को 83 के स्कोर तक पहुंचाया.

प्रभसिमरन 24 गेंदों में 4 छक्कों और 1 चौके के साथ 37 रन बनाकर आउट हुए, जिसके बाद कोनोली ने मोर्चा संभाला. उन्होंने कप्तान श्रेयस अय्यर (18) के साथ तीसरे विकेट के लिए 27 रन जुटाए. इसके बाद दूसरे छोर पर विकेट निरंतर अंतराल पर गिरते रहे, लेकिन कोनोली ने मोर्चा संभाले रखा.

इस बीच मार्को जानसेन (9) के साथ 26 रन और जैवियर बार्टलेट (नाबाद 11) के साथ 21 रन की साझेदारी भी की. कूपर 44 गेंदों में 5 छक्कों और इतने ही चौकों की मदद से 72 रन बनाकर नाबाद रहे. विपक्षी खेमे से प्रसिद्ध कृष्णा ने 3 विकेट निकाले. इनके अलावा, कगिसो रबाडा, अशोक शर्मा, राशिद खान और वाशिंगटन सुंदर ने 1-1 विकेट अपने नाम किया.



Source link

Stock market rules changing from April 1: STT on F&O, algo, buyback & more

Stock market rules changing from April 1: STT on F&O, algo, buyback & more



Stock market rules changing from April 1: Starting April 1, 2026, several key changes will come into effect across the stock market ecosystem. These reforms, introduced or amended by the capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), are aimed at enhancing transparency, tightening risk controls, and supporting long-term stability.

 


Sunny Agarwal, head of fundamental research at SBI Securities, said that the new measures reflect a calibrated effort to curb excessive speculation and enhance the overall quality of market participation. 

 


“Market hopes for a gradual shift from trading to investing, disciplined capital allocation and better stability of markets. Regulatory tightening may cause short-term friction, but the broader direction remains constructive for long-term investors, with an emphasis on quality, transparency, and sustainable growth,” he said. 

 
 


Let’s have a detailed look at the new rules:

 


1. STT hike on F&O: In the Union Budget 2026-27, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced an increase in Securities Transaction Tax (STT) for futures and options (F&O) trading.

 


STT on Futures: 0.05 per cent (old rate: 0.02 per cent)

 


STT on Options (Premium): 0.15 per cent (old rate 0.10 per cent)

 


STT on Options (Exercised): 0.15% (old rate 0.125 per cent)

 


STT is levied and collected by the government.

 


2. 50:50 margin rule: Sebi has mandated that brokers should maintain a minimum of 50 per cent of the margin in cash, with the remaining 50 per cent in non-cash collateral (such as pledged shares) for all the positions in the F&O. This means that a higher cash amount is required to execute a trade. Cash margin (what is allowed): Free cash in the demat account, liquid mutual funds, and overnight funds. Stocks and equity mutual funds are not allowed as cash margin.

 


3. 12% surcharge on share buyback: A flat 12 per cent surcharge will be levied on capital gains from share buybacks. The 12 per cent surcharge will be applicable to individual or corporate shareholders making profits by selling shares in the buyback offer.

 


The new rule will raise the tax cost, because a lower surcharge structure was applied on buybacks earlier. Before this, no surcharge was levied on taxable income up to ₹50 lakhs, while taxable income between ₹50 lakhs and ₹1 crore attracted a 10 per cent surcharge on capital gains from buybacks.

 


4. Strict lending norms for brokers: The RBI has introduced a set of new lending rules for stock brokers.

 


– RBI has tightened the rules for banks lending to stock brokers. As per the new rule, all such credit should be collateral in nature, and stricter monitoring will be carried out on a daily basis.

 


– As per the new rule, in the case of bank guarantees issued to exchanges, a minimum of 50 per cent of such guarantees must be backed by collateral. Of this, at least 25 per cent must be in cash. This means that cash blockage for brokers will increase.

 


– RBI has introduced higher haircuts on equity collateral, to 40 per cent. This means that pledged shares worth ₹100 will be valued at ₹60 by banks. As a result, brokers will need to pledge a larger number of shares or assets to increase the value.

 


– RBI has prohibited bank funding for proprietary trading. In other words, banks can no longer fund stock brokers’ own trading books, although there are a few exceptions. Earlier, stock brokers were heavily dependent on bank funding for proprietary trading.

 


5. New algo trading rules: Algo trading happens when computers automatically buy and sell stocks using pre-defined rules. Let’s take a look at Sebi’s new algo trading framework:

 


– All algo strategies must be approved by exchanges via brokers. All approved algos will have a unique algo ID, and this ID will be tagged to each order, which will facilitate audit and traceability.

 


– Under the new framework, API access will be restricted for retail clients until they declare their strategy to the broker. Brokers will be responsible for monitoring API usage.

 


– All retail API users will be required to share one or two static IP addresses with their brokers. Brokers will register these IP addresses with the exchanges, and only orders originating from these IPs will be accepted.

 


– Sebi has mandated that algo providers be empanelled with exchanges. If a trader uses an algo provided by a vendor or a fintech firm, that entity must be empanelled with exchanges. Brokers will also have to ensure that all steps are followed during the process.

 


– Brokers will have to maintain details of all algo activity, including time, price, quantity, ID, and other information. For API sessions, mandatory two-factor authentication (2FA) and a password expiry policy will be required. Additionally, there should be an automatic session logout system each day. If a client does not meet these criteria, brokers will not be allowed to onboard new API clients.

 


6. New mutual fund rules: Sebi has notified revamped Mutual Fund Regulations. The regulator has introduced a revised structure for expenses, sharper disclosure requirements, and strengthened governance norms for fund houses.

 


Under the new framework, Sebi has introduced the concept of a Base Expense Ratio (BER). This will represent only the fee charged by an AMC for managing funds.

 


AMCs will now have to separately disclose other levies, such as brokerage, STT, stamp duty, and exchange fees. Earlier, these costs were aggregated under the Total Expense Ratio (TER). Additionally, Sebi has expanded the responsibilities of trustees and key managerial personnel of AMCs by tightening oversight and reinforcing governance standards.



Source link

YouTube
Instagram
WhatsApp