Except Rajasthan, other States in the north west region may have below normal rainfall, and above normal temperatures in February, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. Though details of Statewise temperature forecast was not announced, any higher temperature beyond a limit may affect yield of wheat, the main cereal of Rabi season.
“The probability forecast for minimum temperature indicates that during February 2026, minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some regions of south peninsular where normal minimum temperatures are expected. Also above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some isolated regions in the central India and the southern parts of peninsular India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely,” IMD’s Director General M Mohaptra said.
Briefing media on the weather outlook, he also said that monthly rainfall over the country as a whole in February is most likely to be below normal (<81 per cent of LPA). However, some areas of north-west (parts of Rajasthan) and east central India (mainly Chhattisgarh), and extreme southern parts of northeast India (Tripura) may have normal to above-normal rainfall, he added.
Further, Mohapatra also highlighted that rainfall over north-west region consisting of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi and Ladakh is most likely to be below normal, which means lower than 78 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA).
“The ideal temperature for wheat crop during February is upto 12 degree censius in night and 25 degree celsius in day. However, even if the day temperature rises to 30 degree and does not prolong for a week there is no threat to its yield. There will be risk only if both day and night temperature are higher and prolong for more than a week, and such situation normally does not happen,” said Gyanendra Singh, former director of Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR). “Let’s wait and watch,” he added.
The government has fixed a target of 119 million tonnes (mt) of wheat production in 2025-26, which will be harvested from April. Total wheat acreage stood at an all time high 334.17 lh this year, compared with 328.04 lh in 2024-25, up 2 per cent. The output was an all time high of 117.54 mt in 2024-25.
On the other hand, IMD has cautioned that above-normal temperatures may accelerate crop growth and shorten the crop duration of rabi crops, particularly in north-west, and central India. “Crops like wheat and barley may experience forced maturity, leading to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains, resulting in yield reduction,” Mohapatra said.
Further, oilseeds and pulses such as mustard, gram (chana), lentil (masur), and field pea may show early flowering and premature maturity, resulting in poor pod development, reduced seed size, and lower yields, it said adding warmer conditions may also favour rapid multiplication of aphids and other sucking pests.
Vegetable crops such as potato, onion, garlic, tomato, cauliflower, cabbage, and peas may be adversely affected during critical stages of its life cycle . Elevated temperatures can induce bolting in onion and garlic, reduce tuber bulking in potato, because flower drop in tomato and deteriorate crops like cabbage and cauliflower, thereby lowering yield and market value, it said.
Among other risks associated with an above-normal temperatures in February, IMD said that horticultural crops such as mango, citrus, banana, and grapes may experience early flowering, uneven fruit set and increased fruit drop as well as irregular flowering and poor fruit development in temperate fruits like apple, pear and peach.
Published on January 31, 2026
