Silver futures plunged by ₹8,817 to ₹2.42 lakh per kg on Thursday, tracking weak global trends after the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals strengthened the dollar and dampened investors’ appetite for precious metals.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, the white metal for July delivery declined by ₹8,817, or 3.5 per cent, to ₹2,42,990 per kilogram in a business turnover of 11,188 lots.

Analysts said the decline came after the US central bank kept interest rates unchanged, but indicated that the fight against inflation remains far from over, prompting traders to reassess expectations for future monetary policy easing.

Silver prices in the domestic markets saw a sharper decline of more than 3 per cent on Thursday, Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk, said.

“The downturn in precious metals can be attributed to a strengthening US dollar, as traders remain wary following a hawkish June Federal Reserve policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh,” he said.

In the international markets, Comex silver futures for the July contract declined $2.36, or 3.34 per cent, to $68.40 per ounce in New York.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday unanimously voted to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5-3.75 per cent range. However, nine of 18 members of the Federal Open Markets Committee projected that they see a rate hike this year.

“Comex silver prices remained under pressure in the overseas trade on Thursday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but signalled growing support for additional rate hikes, while maintaining its focus on bringing inflation back to target,” Pinky Yadav, Commodity Fundamental Analyst at Choice Broking, said.

According to analysts, prospects for higher-for-longer interest rates tend to weigh on precious metals by boosting bond yields and the US dollar.

“The division among policymakers, with half still anticipating at least one more rate hike this year, along with elevated inflation forecasts and slower GDP growth, reflects the Fed’s ongoing focus on controlling price pressures even if it moderates economic growth,” Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct, said.

He added that higher yields and a firmer dollar could continue to exert pressure on bullion prices in the near term.

Published on June 18, 2026

India’s current account deficit (CAD) will likely rise to 2.2 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) from 0.6 per cent in fiscal 2026 as Brent crude price will likely average $90-95 per barrel this fiscal, nearly 32 per cent higher than in fiscal 2026 higher oil prices, says Crisil. India’s merchandise trade deficit increased to $28.2 billion in May 2026 from $22.6 billion a year ago, with the exports facing a “broad-based 18 per cent acceleration on-year to $45.2 billion in May, compared with 13.8 per cent to $43.6 billion in April.”

Petroleum exports increased 54.9 per cent as against 34.6 per cent and core exports 12.3 per cent ($34.2 billion) as compared with 10.4 per cent ($31.6 billion). “The on-year jump in petroleum exports was due to a statistical low-base effect and reflected the 66.2 per cent on-year increase in Brent crude prices in May,” Crisil noted. On a sequential basis, India’s oil exports dropped to “$8.4 billion in May from $9.6 billion in April, led by lower crude oil prices on-month, after the extraordinary surge in the past two months on account of the conflict in West Asia,” it said.

At the same time, Brent crude price averaged $107.1 per barrel in May, down 8.7 per cent vs April, noted Crisil. According to Crisil, higher oil prices will likely “exert greater pressure on the CAD.””Crisil Intelligence expects Brent crude price to average $90-95 per barrel this fiscal, ~32 per cent higher than in fiscal 2026. Oil remains the biggest source of the goods trade deficit (36 per cent in fiscal 2026),” the report said.

Despite the expected resolution of geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia “energy prices are expected to remain elevated on-year as it will take several months for supplies to normalise fully. Goods exports, too, will have to navigate lingering global trade disruptions,” said Crisil. “For the current fiscal, we project the current account deficit (CAD) to rise to 2.2 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) from 0.6 per cent in fiscal 2026,” said Crisil.

Published on June 18, 2026

West Asian crude ​oil markets could come under further pressure if the
Strait of Hormuz reopens on Friday following the US-Iran
interim deal, releasing millions of barrels of oil ‌stranded in
the Middle East Gulf into global markets, industry executives
said.

The wave of supply comes after Gulf ​producers ramped up exports
via ship-to-ship transfers off the United Arab Emirates and Oman
this month, which depressed spot differentials ⁠for Middle East
crude to discounts on Tuesday.

“The reopening of the Hormuz Strait could unleash some 93
million barrels of stranded non-Iranian barrels from the Persian
Gulf, while producers are expected to continue supplying cargoes
through less visible channels,” Kpler analyst Muyu Xu said in a
June 17 note. Some traders estimated ‌that about 50 million
barrels are set to be released as some cargoes had already been
shipped out.

In addition, the lifting of US restrictions on Iranian crude
could also release some 72 million barrels stranded on tankers
west of Chabahar, ‌with volumes set to rise further if Washington
grants broader sanctions relief, Kpler said.
Iran’s fleet has been gearing up to ‌boost ⁠exports with three of
its tankers this week exiting the strait, which carried about a
fifth of the world’s oil ⁠and liquefied natural gas shipments
before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud
Pezeshkian digitally signed the 14-point agreement to end the
war on Wednesday, U.S. and Iran officials said. Iran’s foreign
ministry said the agreement was already in effect.

ASIAN BUYERS COMMITTED TO SUPPLY ARRIVING JUNE ​TO AUGUST

While supply is set to surge, most Asian ‌refiners have already
booked crude cargoes to arrive in June to August and several
refineries in China are scheduled to shut for maintenance,
refining and trade sources said, reducing demand for immediate
supplies.

Consultancy Energy Aspects tracked more than 1.8 million bpd
of Chinese refining capacity that will be shut for turnarounds
in July, including nearly 1.2 million bpd at private firms.
China’s throughput, already at a near ‌four-year low in May, is
expected to slide further to about 12.4 million bpd this month,
before recovering above 13 ​million bpd in July with state-owned
refiners raising runs, it added.
Many Chinese refiners paused spot buying this week as they eyed
the reopening of the strait and details of the agreement.
Although weaker crude prices improved refinery ⁠economics and
narrowed losses, fuel demand in China is expected to stay
subdued as a result of the country’s rapid adoption of electric
vehicles.

“A large-scale increase in crude buying appears unlikely
unless Beijing relaxes restrictions on product exports and/or
proceeds with another round of strategic petroleum reserves
replenishment,” said Kpler’s ‌Xu.
Some Middle Eastern crude suppliers offered cargoes to
independent refiners in eastern Shandong province, two sources
said, but at prices higher than sanctioned oil from Iran and
Russia.
Crude sellers will need to cut prices further to attract demand
once the strait opens, given that some of them, including
TotalEnergies, still have unsold cargoes, said one
Singapore-based trader. The sources declined to be named as they
were not authorised to speak to the media.

“Refiners are expecting profitability to be quite poor in
the second half of the year,” a South Korean industry official
said.

“So rather than it being a matter of securing a specific
crude, this is becoming a fight over economics,” he added.

ASIA OIL DEMAND SHIFTING BACK ‌TO MIDEAST

Still, refiners are preparing for the eventual rise in
Middle Eastern supply, which is expected to cool Asia’s demand
for oil from the Americas.
Taiwanese state refiner ​CPC said it was ready to import heavier
grades with a higher sulphur content, to produce more bitumen
and sulphur to meet domestic demand if the strait reopens.
Some Middle Eastern oil producers have asked Indian refiners to
consider ⁠buying the committed supplies under their term deals,
which would reduce their purchase of oil via spot tenders,
sources at three refiners said.

Kpler expects ⁠a gradual recovery in Indian demand for Gulf
oil to potentially support an additional 400,000 bpd to 600,000
bpd of Middle Eastern imports through August as refiners
rebalance their crude slate.

“Increased supply of Middle Eastern crude oil would deepen
contango in ‌regional oil benchmarks,” an Asian trader said.

Benchmark Dubai’s premium to swaps returned to positive
territory on Wednesday after slipping into a discount of 46
cents on Tuesday, Reuters’ data showed.

In a contango market, prompt prices are lower than those in
future months indicating ​comfortable supplies.

Published on June 18, 2026

Crude oil futures traded lower on Thursday morning following reports that the US and Iran had digitally signed an interim peace deal to end the war.

At 10.03 am on Thursday, August Brent oil futures were at $77.94, down by 2.02 per cent, and July crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $75, down by 2.33 per cent. June crude oil futures were trading at ₹7078 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹7212, down by 1.86 per cent, and July futures were trading at ₹7034 against the previous close of ₹7158, down by 1.73 per cent.

According to reports, both the US and Iran digitally signed an interim agreement on Wednesday to end their war in West Asia. The deal would help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive US sanctions on oil produced in Iran. These moves would help ease global oil supply situation.

International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report for June said that an interim agreement between the US and Iran to end the war in West Asia could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a lifting of a US blockade on Iranian oil traffic. Prices had already retreated from recent highs as market tensions eased on a surge in Gulf exports at the start of June, an acceleration in IEA government stock releases and weaker demand.

If the deal holds, exports and production from the Gulf should see a gradual recovery – not least because Iranian oil exports can fully resume once the US blockade is lifted, the report said, adding, “Overall, global oil supply is expected to fall by 3.9 million barrels a day on average in 2026 to 102.4 million barrels a day.”

The report said that global oil demand is projected to rise by a relatively modest 2 million barrels a day to 105.3 million barrels a day. By contrast, oil supplies look set to surge by around 8 million barrels a day to 110 million barrels a day. This may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves, as countries review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis.

Meanwhile, the weekly petroleum status report by the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) showed a decline in crude oil inventories for the week ending June 12.

According to EIA, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 8.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 418.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories were about 6 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels from last week and were 6 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1 million barrels last week and were about 13 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total products supplied in the US over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, up by 3.3 per cent from the same period last year.

Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, down by 1.1 per cent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 5.5 per cent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 0.2 per cent compared with the same four-week period last year.

June copper futures were trading at ₹1324.30 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹1338.15, down by 1.04 per cent.

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), June guarseed contracts were trading at ₹6082 in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹5996, up by 1.43 per cent.

June cottonseed oilcake futures were trading at ₹3710 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹3697, up by 0.35 per cent.

Published on June 18, 2026