U.S. President Donald Trump
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ELIZABETH FRANTZ

The Supreme Court on Friday struck down President Donald Trump’s biggest and boldest tariffs. But the justices left a $133 billion question unanswered: What’s going to happen to the money the government has already collected in import taxes now declared unlawful? Companies have been lining up for refunds. But the way forward could prove chaotic.

When the smoke clears, trade lawyers say, importers are likely to get money back — eventually. “It’s going to be a bumpy ride for awhile,” said trade lawyer Joyce Adetutu, a partner at the Vinson & Elkins law firm.

The refund process is likely to be hashed out by a mix of the US Customs and Border Protection agency, the specialised Court of International Trade in New York and other lower courts, according to a note to clients by lawyers at the legal firm Clark Hill.

“The amount of money is substantial,” Adetutu said. “The courts are going to have a hard time. Importers are going to have a hard time.” Still, she added, “it’s going to be really difficult not to have some sort of refund option,” given how decisively the Supreme Court repudiated Trump’s tariffs.

In its 6-3 opinion on Friday, the court ruled Trump’s attempt to use an emergency powers law to enact the levies was not valid. Two of the three justices appointed by Trump joined the majority in striking down the first major piece of his second-term agenda to come before them.

At issue are double-digit tariffs Trump imposed on almost every country in the world last year by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Supreme Court ruled that the law did not give the president authority to tax imports, a power that belongs to Congress.

The US customs agency has already collected $133 billion in IEEPA tariffs as of mid-December. But consumers hoping for a refund are unlikely to be compensated for the higher prices they paid when companies passed along the cost of the tariffs; that’s more likely to go to the companies themselves.

In a dissenting opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh dinged his colleagues for dodging the refund issue: “The Court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers.” Borrowing a word that Justice Amy Coney Barrett — who sided with the majority — used during the court’s November hearing on the case, Kavanaugh warned that “the refund process is likely to be a mess.” “I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years,” Trump told reporters at a press conference Friday, in which he decried the court’s decision and said he was “absolutely ashamed” of some justices who ruled against his tariffs. “We’ll end up being in court for the next five years.” The end of the IEEPA tariffs could help the economy by easing inflationary pressures. The tariff refunds — like other tax refunds — could stimulate spending and growth. But the impacts are likely to be modest.

Most countries still face steep tariffs from the US on specific sectors, and Trump intends to replace the IEEPA levies using other options. The refunds that do get issued will take time to roll out — 12 to 18 months, estimates TD Securities.

The US customs agency does have a process for refunding duties when importers can show there’s been some kind of error. The agency might try to build on the existing system to refund Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, said trade lawyer Dave Townsend, a partner with the law firm Dorsey & Whitney.

And there has been a precedent for courts making arrangements to give companies their money back in trade cases. In the 1990s, the courts struck down as unconstitutional a harbour maintenance fee on exports and set up a system for exporters to apply for refunds.

But the courts and US customs have never had to deal with anything like this — thousands of importers and tens of billions of dollars at once.

“Just because the process is difficult to administer doesn’t mean the government has the right to hold on to fees that were collected unlawfully,” said trade lawyer Alexis Early, partner at the law firm Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner.

Ryan Majerus, a partner at King & Spalding and a former US trade official, said it’s hard to know how the government will deal with the massive demand for refunds. It might try to streamline the process, perhaps setting up a special website where importers can claim their refunds.

But Adetutu warns that “the government is well-positioned to make this as difficult as possible for importers. I can see a world where they push as much responsibility as possible onto the importer” — maybe forcing them to go to court to seek the refunds.

Many companies, including Costco, Revlon and canned seafood and chicken producer Bumble Bee Foods, filed lawsuits claiming refunds even before the Supreme Court ruled, essentially seeking to be at the head of line if the tariffs were struck down.

There are likely to be more legal battles ahead. Manufacturers might, for example, sue for a share of any refunds given to suppliers that jacked up the price of raw materials to cover the tariffs.

“We may see years of ongoing litigation in multiple jurisdictions,” Early said.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker

Consumers, though, are unlikely to enjoy a refund windfall. The higher prices they’ve had to pay would likely be hard to attribute to a specific tariff. Should they pursue refunds anyway? Early wouldn’t advise wasting money on legal fees, but said: “In America, we have the ability to file a lawsuit for anything we want.” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat and Trump antagonist, is demanding a refund on behalf of his state’s 5.11 million households. In a letter addressed to Trump and released by Pritzker’s gubernatorial campaign, the governor said the tariffs had cost each Illinois household $1,700 — or $8.7 billion. Pritzker said failure to pay will elicit “further action.” Nevada Treasurer Zach Conine submitted a payment request to the federal government for $2.1 billion to recoup the costs of the tariffs, his office announced Friday.

“As Nevada’s chief investment officer, I have a responsibility to try to recoup every single dollar that the Trump Administration takes from Nevada families,” Conine said in a statement.

Published on February 21, 2026

PhonePe has announced the launch of an AI-powered natural language search feature built using Microsoft Foundry.

This feature enables PhonePe users to initiate and complete in-app tasks via natural language text or voice commands, enhancing convenience and bringing personalization to the platform’s overall experience.

The feature uses capabilities enabled by Microsoft Foundry to replace traditional navigation with intent-based routing, directly guiding users to their intended destination.

For instance, a request such as “Pay Hemanth 20 rupees” automatically launches the payment interface with the recipient pre-selected or displays all relevant contacts named Hemanth. Similarly, commands like “Recharge FASTag” or “Gold price” navigate the user to the appropriate page or surface with the most relevant information or transactional options.

Beyond simple transactions, this feature captures insights and can interpret whether a user is trying to make a payment, complete a purchase, or reach support for help.

All of this is achieved via a hybrid model that combines local on-device and cloud inferencing, while keeping all processing secure and ensuring privacy with no personal or transactional data leaving the PhonePe environment.

Speaking on the launch, Rahul Chari, Founder, Whole-time Director & CTO, PhonePe, said: “For years, payment apps have been built as utilitarian tools, optimized for transactions and not people. Through our collaboration with Microsoft, we aim to simplify payments further by understanding intent, not just inputs. And we believe intelligence at the edge is the future and the most thoughtful way to deliver real value without compromising on privacy or security.”

Puneet Chandok, President, Microsoft India and South Asia said: “ Microsoft Foundry provides the underlying capabilities that help innovators like PhonePe build secure, scalable and human-centred products for millions. We’re committed to supporting India’s digital ecosystem with trusted AI that empowers organisations to deliver simpler and more meaningful customer experiences.”

The feature will be rolled out in phases to users across India. Users can access the feature via the Global Search Bar, Help Center and the History tab on the PhonePe payments app.

Published on February 21, 2026

The oil market is in the middle of its strongest start to a year since 2022 as supply shocks and sanctions confound expectations of a glut. Now traders are racing to cover themselves against the prospect of the US bombing Iran again.

A surge in activity across futures and options markets is already pulling up crude prices — Brent futures touched a seven-month high of more than $72 a barrel on Friday, and some analysts see a risk premium of as much as $10.

The rally — Brent is up about 18 per cent since the end of last year — represents a marked shift from just weeks ago, when traders were focused on forecasts for a record surplus, especially around now. 

Instead, there’s been unexpected strength thanks to supply disruptions in the US and Kazakhstan — as well as a shunning of sanctioned crude. That’s been amplified by geopolitical risk — starting in Venezuela and extending to Iran — where President Donald Trump could order fresh strikes in a region home to about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

“You have a potential war, and that’s the overriding factor, but it’s in addition to a much tighter market than people anticipated,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors LLC. “I would fasten my seatbelt and wouldn’t want to be short in this market.”

Trump said in response to reporters’ questions on Friday that he’s considering a limited strike on Iran after amassing the biggest US force since 2003. Axios reported earlier in the week that a US attack on Iran could come sooner than expected and look more like a full-fledged war.

Futures Surge

The number of Brent oil futures held surged to an all-time high this year, while last month saw record trading in options to protect against a further rally. Volatility has surged to the highest since the US last bombed Iran in June, and traders have — for the longest period in years — been charging premiums to protect against a surge.

“It does feel that the probability of limited strikes and limited retaliatory strikes from Iran seems less likely this time around,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at consultant Rystad Energy AS. “It worked last year, but right now I have the feeling it’s a nuclear deal, or a wider escalation, not something in the middle.”

That prices haven’t pushed higher is a sign of how much global output has expanded. 

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright even said this week that American energy dominance has made the country’s foreign policy less beholden to supply shocks. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies steadily lifted output last year. Likewise, volumes from outside the group also hit a record, leaving global production at 108 million barrels a day at the end of 2025, according to IEA estimates. That’s almost 3 million barrels a day higher than consumption over the same period, its figures show.

Still, the first few weeks of January offered an example of how unexpected output curbs can quickly narrow that gap.

Planned exports of Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend crude fell to the lowest level in about a decade thanks to a combination of drone attacks, maintenance, damage to a production facility and bad weather. At the same time, a deep freeze in the US contributed to two of the four largest declines in American oil inventories this century. Crude stockpiles alone fell by 9 million barrels last week.

While output in both countries has since picked up again, the disruption helped to erode western stockpiles at a time when they’d been expected to grow quickly. 

Physical oil traders are watching the situation in Iran closely, too. 

Some refiners in Asia, the top consuming region, have begun asking about the availability of cargoes from regions outside of the Persian Gulf in order to cover themselves against the risk of disruption. 

Earnings for oil supertankers, whose supply was already constrained, have also soared partly in anticipation of a US move. The market’s biggest ships are earning more than $150,000 a day, the most since the pandemic when many of them were deployed to store unwanted barrels.

Rates for the ships have been bolstered by tensions in recent days, after Iran claimed earlier this week it briefly closed part of the narrow Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, through which a fifth of the world’s barrels flow.

“Right now, the focus is overwhelmingly on Iran and what happens with the Strait of Hormuz,” said Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors. “That is the billion dollar question.”

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

Published on February 21, 2026

Indian Overseas Bank Officers’ Association (IOBOA) has announced a one-day all-India strike on March 2 as part of a nationwide agitation against alleged coercive surveillance measures and workplace practices imposed by the management.

Backing the move, the All India Bank Officers’ Confederation (AIBOC) said the developments signal a serious and alarming shift in workplace culture, alleging that officers are being subjected to forced late sitting, unilateral end-of-day restrictions and other steps that undermine dignity and professional autonomy.

In a statement, it claimed that repeated representations highlighting concerns over morale, mental well-being and institutional functioning have not received an adequate response.

The confederation termed the reported action to lock the association’s office and deny access to its office-bearers after notice of agitation was served earlier this month as ‘draconian’.

It is a direct attack on trade union rights and bilateral industrial relations mechanisms, the statement said.

According to AIBOC, the dispute comes despite strong financial performance by the lender in the December 2025 quarter, including a sharp rise in net profit and improved asset quality indicators, which reflected officers’ dedication and should have been met with trust-based governance.

The association’s demands include restoration of humane working hours, withdrawal of certain HR clauses, transparent governance, adequate recruitment and an end to what it described as arbitrary leave denial, penalties and unilateral policy decisions.

As part of the agitation schedule, demonstrations will be held at regional centres on February 23, followed by dharnas on February 26, culminating in the March 2 strike.

Published on February 21, 2026