Indian equity markets are bracing for heightened volatility as escalating tensions in the Middle East push crude oil prices higher and revive concerns over inflation, trade balances and fiscal stability.

Brokerage JM Financial said the coordinated US–Israel strikes on Iran mark a sharp escalation in regional hostilities, significantly raising the risk of supply disruptions. The brokerage noted that Brent crude has already climbed to multi-month highs and warned that any sustained disruption in shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices well beyond current levels.

Nearly 20 per cent of global oil flows and over 40 per cent of India’s crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a key vulnerability for the domestic economy. JM Financial said that every $1 per barrel increase in crude prices could raise India’s annual import bill by roughly $2 billion. While upstream oil and defence companies may see relative support, sectors such as oil marketing companies, paints, aviation and chemicals could come under pressure from higher input costs. The brokerage added that the sustainability of Brent above $80 per barrel and the duration of any supply disruption would be critical variables for Indian equities.

Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, echoed concerns over the immediate fallout. “The near-term impact will be negative. Crude has spiked and if the crude price remains high for an extended period of time, our balance of trade and balance of payments will be impacted since we import around 85 per cent of our oil requirements. OPEC Plus will scale up production and try to stabilise prices. If the strait of Hormuz is closed (there are unconfirmed reports of this), the crude price can spike further. Trump may forcefully reopen this. But that requires boots on the ground which will escalate tensions further, he added.

On the medium-term outlook, Vijayakumar said, “Medium-term impact on the market will depend on how long the conflict lasts. We don’t know the answer to this question. After crippling Iran, US and Israel may make a strategic withdrawal. The market will react very negatively. In a weak market, upstream oil companies and defence stocks will do well.”

Market participants expect a gap-down opening if tensions intensify further, with risk-off sentiment dominating trade. Investors will closely track crude price movements, developments around shipping routes in the Gulf region and any signals of de-escalation, as these factors are likely to dictate the trajectory of Indian equities in the near term.

Published on March 1, 2026

FILE PHOTO: Dell Technologies 
| Photo Credit:
Dado Ruvic

Dell Technologies Inc. shares jumped the most in two years after the company gave an outlook for sales of its artificial intelligence servers that exceeded estimates, a sign of robust demand for machines helping fuel the AI data center build-out.

The company will generate about $50 billion in AI server revenue in the current fiscal year, which ends in January 2027, Dell said Thursday in a statement. 

“The AI opportunity is transforming our company,” Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the statement. Dell enters the year “with a record backlog of $43 billion — powerful proof that our engineering leadership and differentiated AI solutions are winning,” he said.

The shares surged 22 per cent to $148.08 at the close Friday in New York, their biggest single-day gain since March 1, 2024. The stock was up 5 per cent over the past 12 months heading into Friday’s trading.

Dell’s servers designed to run AI workloads are attracting customers from companies that rent computing power like CoreWeave Inc. and Nscale Global Holdings Ltd., as well as corporate clients and major AI providers. The Texas-based company has been working to hold down costs and improve margins even as prices for memory chips rise rapidly.

In the fiscal fourth quarter, Dell reported an operating margin of 14.8 per cent for its server and networking unit, compared with an average estimate of 12.9 per cent. In its computer unit, the margin was 4.7%. Analysts, on average, projected 6.18%.

“Across the industry, the environment remains highly dynamic, with unprecedented AI demand creating sustained supply tightness and frequent pricing resets,” Clarke said in prepared remarks, referring to the memory chip issue.

Earnings, excluding some items, will be about $12.90 a share in the current fiscal year, Dell said in the statement. Sales will be about $140 billion. Analysts, on average, projected profit of $11.56 a share on revenue of $126.3 billion.

The company also announced a $10 billion increase in its share buyback program.

In the quarter, total sales increased 39% to $33.4 billion, compared with the average estimate of $31.7 billion. Profit, excluding some items, was $3.89 a share. Analysts, on average, projected $3.52. 

Revenue produced by the infrastructure group increased 73 per cent to $19.6 billion. Sales in the computer unit, called the Client Solutions Group, jumped 14 per cent to $13.5 billion.  

(Updates with closing share price in the fourth paragraph.)

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©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Published on March 1, 2026

FILE PHOTO: Representation of bitcoin cryptocurrency
| Photo Credit:
Dado Ruvic

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rebounded sharply in early Asia trading on Sunday after Iran confirmed that the country’s supreme leader had been killed during a military campaign by the US and Israel.

The original cryptocurrency rose as much as 2.21 per cent to $68,196 following the news. It was trading at around $67,700 at 11 a.m. in Singapore, after dropping as much as 3.8 per cent the previous day. Ether, the second-largest token, gained as much as 4.58 per cent to trade back above $2,000.

Crypto markets, which trade 24/7, were rattled in the hours after the bombing began. Iran launched counterstrikes on multiple locations — including Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — and threatened more against US linked bases in Iraq. Yet digital assets started to recover throughout the day, with Bitcoin moving sharply higher after initial reports that Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was dead.

“Traders generally don’t expect the Iran conflict to have major negative economic consequences, and demand for upside Bitcoin calls has clearly picked up in recent days,” said Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, adding that traders were positioning themselves for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Cryptocurrencies had recovered roughly $32 billion in market value by Sunday morning, after shedding about $128 billion the previous day, according to data from CoinGecko.

“Bitcoin is the only large liquid asset trading 24/7, so it absorbed all the selling pressure that would normally spread across equities, bonds, and commodities,” said Hayden Hughes, managing partner at Tokenize Capital. “The real price discovery happens Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen. With missiles hitting Dubai, Iranian retaliation across the Gulf, and Strait of Hormuz closure risk, this is not a contained event.”

Extended loss

For Bitcoin, the weekend losses extend a months-long selloff in crypto markets, beginning with the liquidation of some $19 billion in leveraged positions in October. Bitcoin has fallen around 50 per cent from its all-time peak of over $126,000 earlier that month, unable to latch on to rallies in gold and other safe-haven assets.

“As always, when critical events take place during the weekend, Bitcoin plays the role of pressure valve,” said Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, noting that the initial impact on the token wasn’t as drastic as some might have expected. 

“With a lot of the leverage already cleared out and exhausted sellers, there’s only so much impact macro events can have,” he added.

Meanwhile, with traditional venues closed, digital-asset investors turned to tokenized commodities on decentralised exchange Hyperliquid to position for geopolitical fallout. Prices for contracts tied to oil, gold and silver jumped on the platform.

The reaction also materialised through a sharp increase in selling pressure on Bitcoin derivatives, where within a single hour on Saturday morning, sell volume surged by approximately $1.8 billion, according to an analysis published by CryptoQuant.

“This type of imbalance reflects clear seller dominance and rising short-term risk aversion,” wrote crypto analyst Sylvain Olive. “Flows are driven more by emotion and risk management than by structural dynamic, requiring a cautious approach.”

–With assistance from Anna Irrera and Shiyin Chen.

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©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Published on March 1, 2026

File Photo: US President Donald Trump
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

The United States ​will hit ‌Iran “with a force ​that ⁠has never been seen before,” US ‌President Donald Trump said on ‌Sunday, should ‌the ⁠Middle East ⁠nation retaliate for US strikes.

“Iran just stated ​that ‌they are going to hit very hard today, harder ‌than they ​have ever been hit ⁠before,” Trump said in a post ‌on Truth Social.

He added, “THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE ‌IF THEY DO, WE ​WILL HIT THEM WITH ⁠A FORCE THAT ⁠HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!”

Published on March 1, 2026