Manufacturers continue to divert the wafer capacity toward higher‑margin AI‑focused DRAM needs such as those in data centres, and this leaves smartphone OEMs with limited visibility
| Photo Credit:
GORODENKOFF

Global smartphone shipments are forecast to fall 12 per cent y-o-y in 2026, dropping just below 1.1 billion units, the lowest annual volume since 2013, when the global 4G transition was still on, research firm Counterpoint said in an analysis on Friday.

A severe memory crunch, coupled with elongated replacement cycles in absence of large specification changes are set to be the primary trigger of the downturn, which is anticipated to extend into 2027.

“Premium segments will remain comparatively resilient, while lower segments will face the sharpest margin and affordability pressures due to shrinking LPDDR4 supply and rising component costs. As a result, OEMs focused on lower segments and emerging markets will take the biggest hit,” Counterpoint said .

long term delays

Counterpoint Principal Analyst Yang Wang said, ”The impact is expected to continue through H2 2027, as it will take several quarters for memory supply expansion to materialise. Lower-end smartphones are likely to be affected the most, especially as LPDDR4 supply is shrinking faster than expected. OEMs are already responding with launch delays, streamlined portfolios and specification trade-offs. We have also observed 10-20 per cent price increases across some Android OEM portfolios in January 2026.”

“Apple and Samsung are likely to weather the headwinds better due to stronger supply chain integration, higher pricing power, and continued premiumisation,” Counterpoint said. We also expect the second-hand smartphone market to grow in 2026 as some of these offerings in the sub $300 segment will look more attractive to budget-conscious buyers, the report added.

Speaking to businessline about the scenario in Indian smartphone market, Counterpoint senior analyst Prachir Singh said that there is set to be a 5-10 per cent shipment decline in India due to the memory crunch. OEMs are either passing on the higher memory prices to consumers or in some instances there is a sort of “Shrinkflation” with trade off of specs in subsequent models, he said. The memory crunch is fundamentally supply‑side in nature, and recovery will depend on the pace of new memory capacity coming online, he added.

Manufacturers continue to divert the wafer capacity toward higher‑margin AI‑focused DRAM needs such as those in data centres, and this leaves smartphone OEMs with limited visibility. Mobile LPDDR4/5 prices in Q2 2026 are expected to reach nearly three times the levels seen in Q3 2025, reflecting an unprecedented squeeze in supply.

Published on February 27, 2026

Even as gold prices go beyond the reach of the commoners, experts said the yellow metal remains a good investment with potential to move higher in the future.

In the session Precious Metals: Beyond Aam Aadmi’s Reach, experts concurred that they do not see any immediate relief in the volatility of gold prices unless global insecurities stabilise. But households should find a way to monetise the gold that they hold, especially against the background of rising wealth driven by higher gold prices.

According to research by Morgan Stanley, Indian households hold about 34,600 tonne of gold with them and a large chunk of it is with rural India. Gold has had a very sharp run over the last couple of years. In one year alone, it was up by 84 per cent. In 1964, 10 grams of 24 karat gold was priced at ₹63. But now, 10 grams of 24 karat gold will cost ₹1,65,000. And 22 karat gold is available at about ₹1,45,000. Likewise, 1 gram of gold costs ₹14,000 to ₹15,000.

“Gold is not a cash flow generating asset to start with. The recent rally is driven by the changing economic world order. Central banks have played a key role in ramping up their gold reserves, led by the wave of de-dollarisation. I don’t see that changing anytime soon,” said Tarun Kanwar, Director Navrattan Jewellers, Delhi, while replying to the question on whether the current rally in gold will continue.

This found an echo in the subsequent assertions of two others speakers — Kavita Chacko, Research Head, India, World Gold Council, and Jateen Trivedi, Vice-President, Commodity and Currency Research, LKP Securities.

However, Jateen Trivedi sees an opportunity in the disruptive gold market. “The volatility is definitely going to be there, but that volatility will give us an opportunity to enter because gold is not in a one-way street,” he remarked.

With moderator Lokeshwarri SK, Data Editor, the hindu businessline, the three speakers navigated a complex array of issues confronting the precious metal industry, as well as the struggle arising from market dynamics. The rural-urban divide on consumption pattern, and youngsters’ liking for light weight-and-ready to wear jewellery were part of the threadbare discussion.

Answering a question on whether gold consumption has come down in India due to price increase, the experts noted that though the volume has taken a hit, the value has been compensated largely due to the increase in the price of gold. But the fact that precious metals are finding different investment avenues — Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) for interest and safety, gold ETFs/funds for liquidity, digital gold for convenience and jewellery savings schemes for physical acquisition — is increasing the investment demand for gold, thereby keeping demand steady.

“So what is interesting is that gold demand has been very resilient. That said, there is a slight shift in the product mix. Jewellery demand in terms of volume has come down. And at the same time, investment demand in physical or gold-backed financial products has seen an increase,” said Chacko. “In 2025, jewellery demand for India was 420 tonnes. It was a 12 per cent increase in value. Investment demand for bars and coins was 280 tonnes, which was a 17 per cent increase year-on-year. Demand for ETFs was around 27 tonnes last year.”

recycled gold

Kanwar had an interesting observation about recycled gold finding its way into the market. “Its actually a good thing because it brings down the burden on our imports a little lower. Our government has been trying to monetise the gold that households have been sitting on and bring it back into circulation. Recycling is almost 30 per cent to 40 per cent of our total sales,” the jeweller pointed out.

But before the experts could offer their views, Lakhpati Didi from Tripura, Aruna Debbarma, who was invited as a guest for another session, candidly stated that possessing gold was still a dream for women of her background. The suggestion from the expert to conclude was that people can think of having 15 per cent to 20 per cent gold investment in their overall portfolio, given that increased price of gold has correspondingly lead to increase in wealth of precious metal holders as well.

Published on February 27, 2026

G Srinivasan, MD and CEO, Galaxy Health Insurance
| Photo Credit:
BIJOY GHOSH

Galaxy Health Insurance, a standalone health insurer just about 16 months into operation, is set to close FY26 with about Rs 150 crore in premium. Further, the company is looking to clock about ₹350 crore in premium for FY27. Jointly promoted by the families of TVS’ Venu Srinivasan and Star Health founder V Jagannathan, the insurer has currently recorded about ₹125 crore in premium, with one month remaining in the fiscal.

With about 3.5 lakh policyholders currently, Galaxy has policyholders across eight States- Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Assam, and Uttar Pradesh, and has an average ticket size of around ~₹18,000 per policy, G Srinivasan, MD and CEO, Galaxy Health Insurance, told businessline.

“We have so far settled about 15,000 claims in the current year, and there have been no grievances on our claims. And if a customer claims ₹100 , we have been able to pay almost 98.6,” said Srinivasan, indicating that there is a wide perception that insurers only pay about 70-80 per cent.

The company has an agent network of about 15,000 in just a year of operation and aims to grow this. The response of GST cut on insurance has been very positive from the customer side, said Srinivasan, noting that, as a company they have not reduced agents’ commission and absorbed the impact of not having input credit set-off. “It is about about 6 per cent of our premium as impact on the bottom line, and we have absorbed it,” he said. “We hope that the increased volumes which will come over a period of time should compensate this,” he added.

With regard to 100 per cent FDI now allowed in insurance, the executive said that they are strongly capitalised by the promoters at the moment, and any decision on bringing in foreign investment will be that of the promoters.

While personal accident policies a small part of the business currently (at about 2-3 per cent), the insurer also plans to come out with a travel insurance product in a month or two.

Among the core objectives of setting up Galaxy is to increase penetration in health insurance. Second is to come out with products which provide a wholesome solution to the customers, and the third is to focus on wellness, because today health insurance comes into play only after a person has fallen sick, but the idea is how do we engage with customers to make them live a healthy life, Srinivasan notes. 

Published on February 27, 2026

Video KYC, shorter OFS timelines, and easier Demat account rules are among the regulatory tweaks that have cleared the path for XED Executive Development Ltd to launch its first IPO in GIFT City this March, making it the first Indian company to test the waters in the International Financial Services Centre. The promoters — John Kallelil and the chief financial officer Piyush Agrawal, classmates from Basil school in Vadodara — say these adjustments were critical in enabling the offering for global investors.

“We faced practical hurdles that no one had encountered before,” said Kallelil, based in New York. “For instance, many of our overseas investors didn’t have Demat accounts in India. IFSCA allowed applications without an existing Demat for this IPO, which was a huge relief. They also permitted video KYC, a six-month OFS instead of the earlier one-year window, and extended the acceptable age of financial statements from 135 to 180 days. These tweaks made it feasible to go ahead with our IPO,” he added.

The company’s IPO opens on March 6 and closes on March 18. It has set a price band of $10 – $10.5 per share.

Founded in 2018, XED Executive Development specialises in high-touch executive education programmes. Kallelil and Agrawal, along with colleagues from Indian School of Business and IIT Kanpur, have expanded XED’s operations globally—from India and Singapore to the US and Middle East—offering customised programmes with universities like Oxford, Cornell, Carnegie Mellon, and Singapore Management University. John said about 50-60 per cent of XED’s revenue comes from public programmes and 40-50 per cent from enterprise programmes delivered worldwide.

The GIFT City IPO is being positioned primarily for NRIs and foreign investors, with India-based residents ineligible to participate due to offshore listing rules. “Our target market is the Middle East, particularly the UAE, and Southeast Asia,” Piyush said. “We are also engaging distributors to eventually expand access in the US,” said Agrawal.

Apart from raising capital, the company plans to invest part of the proceeds in creating dedicated executive education campuses. Kallelil explained, “When the average participant has 15-24 years of professional experience, a standard classroom isn’t enough. We want spaces that mirror top global executive classrooms, efficient yet luxurious, so senior leaders can focus on learning.” Locations under consideration include GIFT City, Mumbai and Dubai, where XED runs part of its modules.

XED is raising $12 million in total through the IPO, including a 0.6 million-share allocation for market-making purposes. “This ensures liquidity for investors post-listing,” Agrawal said. Of the total, 9.6 million is a fresh issue to fund growth, while the remaining 2.4 million comes from an offer-for-sale to early angel investors. Post-IPO, the promoters together will hold around 60-63 per cent of the company.

Kallelil emphasised that the apparent losses on XED’s books in prior periods are primarily due to revenue recognition timing. “A programme sold in FY25, for instance, might be delivered over 10 months. Costs are recognised upfront while revenue is recognised only as modules are delivered. So the P&L shows a loss, but the business is growing robustly,” he remarked.

The IPO in March marks a first for both XED and GIFT City’s capital markets. The company and its promoters credit the regulators for a hands-on approach. “IFSCA was incredibly supportive—they fast-tracked depository participant approvals, helped adjust timelines, and even allowed flexibility on financial disclosures,” Kallelil said. “These were small but critical nudges that made the listing viable for a company like ours,” he added.

Published on February 27, 2026