Since the escalation in hostilities between the US-Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, traffic across the 34 km-long world’s most critical energy chokepoint has virtually come to a halt—now considered the biggest disruption in the history of the global oil and gas markets.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

Oilfield services major Baker Hughes and the Federal Bank of Dallas expect traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) to normalise by the second half of the current calendar year.

On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects flows through the SoH to gradually resume from May 2026 onwards

Since the escalation in hostilities between the US-Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, traffic across the 34 km-long world’s most critical energy chokepoint has virtually come to a halt—now considered the biggest disruption in the history of the global oil and gas markets.

In Dallas Fed’s Q1 2026 Energy Survey, 39 per cent of the participating oil and gas companies said they expect normal traffic in the SoH by August 2026. Over that, another 26 per cent expect the same by November 2026, and 14 percent even later than that.

The data was collected between April 15–20 from 120 oil and gas firms. Of the respondents, 78 were exploration and production firms, and 42 were oilfield services firms.

Another important finding from the survey is that majority of the executives say that future disruptions to the SoH are likely. Of respondents, 48 per cent say it is “very likely” that geopolitical events will disrupt traffic again within the next five years, while 38 percent view it as “somewhat likely.”

Meanwhile, top drilling rig supplier Baker Hughes in its Q2 2026 and FY2026 guidance assumptions said “Middle East disruptions continue through the end of June, without further escalation. Conflict resolved at the end of Q2 (2026), with Strait of Hormuz fully operational during all H2 2026.”

The IEA has highlighted three case scenarios on the resumption of traffic through the SoH.

“While many questions remain over the pace of an eventual recovery of flows, this Report assumes, in our “base case”, that oil shipments will gradually resume from May (2026), allowing a recovery in oil production and refinery activity through Q3 2026,” it explained.

In this case, IEA balances show oil market deficits returning to a surplus that averages 2.5 mb/d in H2 2026. The cumulative supply deficit peaks in June before correcting almost linearly by year end with the recovery in supply, it added.

“In our ‘protracted case’, disruptions to Middle East energy production and trade remain high, and energy flows to international markets remain largely restricted. This will cause deficits in the oil balance to persist, with the resulting price rise and economic impact pushing oil demand into a large year-on-year contraction,” IEA said. 

The price and economic effects of this scenario, plus already announced demand reduction measures, reduce demand by 5 mb/d y-o-y on average from Q2 2026 through Q4 2026, it added.

The remaining shortfall in supply lifts the global call on stocks to an untenable 6 mb/d, or almost 2 billion barrels in aggregate losses by year end.

“With the geopolitical situation still in flux and the prospects for a lasting negotiated settlement to the conflict still unclear, our two cases span the range of probable outcomes. A middle case where flows see a gradual but only partial resumption before end-2026 may also be considered,” the IEA anticipated.

The IEA in its April oil market report said global oil supply plummeted 10.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 97 mb/d in March. Continued attacks on energy infrastructure in Middle East and ongoing restrictions to tanker movements through the SoH is leading to the largest disruption in history.

Published on April 26, 2026

Wild swings in equity markets and a sharp decline in key benchmark indices this year have weighed heavily on the mutual fund industry, with most asset management companies reporting only low single-digit growth in the March quarter.

Of the top 20 fund houses, as many as 11 recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline in assets under management (AUM) in March, reflecting the broader market downturn.

For instance, market leader SBI MF’s assets were almost unchanged at ₹12.48 lakh crore while that of HDFC MF was up marginally at ₹9.27 lakh crore (₹9.24 lakh crore).

DP Singh, Deputy Managing Director and Joint CEO, SBI Mutual Funds said the AUM was largely flat due to mark-to-market loss in both active and passive funds during the March quarter.

“Being the market leader in active and passive equity funds the impact was more visible. The benchmark indices have fallen almost 10 per cent during the quarter. Further, the normal year-end redemption phenomenon has also played its role across the industry,” he said.

Among other large fund houses that reported a marginal drop in AUM in the March quarter include Aditya Birla Sun Life MF, UTI MF, Axis MF, Mirae Asset MF, Bandhan MF, Motilal Oswal MF, Franklin Templeton MF, Canara Robeco MF and Quant MF.

The MF industry AUM was flat at Rs 81.53 lakh crore in March quarter against Rs 81 lakh crore in December quarter.

The benchmark Sensex and Nifty has fallen 15 per cent each in the March quarter directly impacting both the active and passively managed schemes as the West Asia war disrupted India’s economic growth.

PPFAS MF registered the highest growth of 4 per cent among top 20 fund houses with assets growth to Rs 1.52 lakh crore in March quarter against Rs 1.45 lakh crore in December quarter, according the Association of Mutual Funds in India data.

It was followed by Nippon MF and ICICI MF with 3 per cent asset growth at Rs 7.24 lakh crore (Rs 7 lakh crore) and Rs 11.03 lakh crore (Rs 10.76 lakh crore).

The drop in AUM would have been much sharper if not for the steady inflows through SIP and equity inflows. Unlike in previous instances, investors have been pumping in more money whenever markets plunged in a bid to average their cost.

The inflows in actively managed equity schemes increased nine per cent in March quarter to Rs 90,457 crore against Rs 82,655 crore in December quarter.

Similarly, inflows in passive funds jumped 44 per cent to Rs 84,602 crore against Rs 58,777 crore in the December quarter.

Akshat Garg, Head – Research & Product at Choice Wealth said despite sharp volatility and correction in equities, the industry saw strong retail participation with positive equity inflows for the 61st consecutive month and SIP contributions hitting a record high almost every month. This indicates that domestic investors are increasingly acting counter-cyclical rather than reacting to short-term market movements, he said.

Though there may be some moderation or volatility in flows depending on market returns, he added the rising SIP penetration and growing investor awareness will support inflows in long-run, he added.

Published on April 26, 2026

Pirojsha Godrej
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bl-online Administrator

The financial capital needs to focus on protecting mangroves, industrialist Pirojsha Godrej has said, vowing to never develop the patch of the greens by the creek under the family’s control in suburban Vikhroli.

In comments that come amid a move to chop 45,000 mangrove trees in Versova for a sealink, the chairman-designate of the Godrej Industries Group said that we need to “balance” competing narratives when it comes to major infrastructure projects.

“I think the city does need to put a lot of focus on protecting them,” Godrej told PTI in an interview at his office overlooking a huge patch of mangroves along the creek.

Calling the mangroves a sense of pride for the over a century-old industrial house, Godrej said that the mangroves under its control are over five times the size of London’s Hyde Park and vowed to protect them.

The 45-year-old scion, who is set to lead a part of the family’s business from August, said he is “very confident” the patch will never be developed.

Godrej, who has been overseeing the realty business for the last few years, however, seemed to suggest that taking any side in the debate between development and environmental protection is very difficult.

“I think the problem is on both sides. I think sometimes development is done in a very haphazard, chaotic, environmentally destructive way. But equally, sometimes the case for conservation is done in an unnecessarily anti-development way,” he said.

It is essential to development, otherwise a city will lose its relevance, Godrej said, prescribing a higher floor space index, public transport, and having parks in neighbourhoods as the right approach.

The environmentalists get it “totally wrong” when they press to limit FSI, Godrej said, reasoning that leads to an encouragement to haphazard and illegal development.

Godrej also welcomed the work being done by the government through initiatives like having parks along the coastal road and the Mahalaxmi racecourse development plan.

He hoped that more wealth and better perspectives in cities would help change the approach to urban development for the better.

Published on April 26, 2026

Stating that it is “cautiously optimistic” on the overall wheat production outlook, the government on Sunday said that the output in 2025–26 remains stable and resilient, supported by increased acreage, improved agronomic practices, and enhanced varietal adoption, despite ‘localised’ weather-related impacts.

“In response to certain media reports regarding the wheat production scenario for 2025–26, it is clarified that the current wheat season may be characterized as mixed but resilient, shaped by both climatic adversities as well as strong adaptive measures undertaken by farmers,” the agriculture ministry said in a statement.

According to the government’s second advance estimate, wheat output in 2025-26 is pegged at 120.21 million tonnes (mt) as against 117.95 mt in 2024-25. As the estimate was arrived at before the unseasonal rains and hailstorms in March-April damaged the crop, the next update by the government is keenly awaited by the stakeholders amid lower procurement in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

The Roller Flour Millers Federation of India (RFMFI) on April 24 released its third “Annual Wheat Survey Report 2026”, prepared by private agency Agriwatch which has pegged the production at 110.65 mt, up from 109.63 mt in 2024-25. Agriwatch’s Nalin Rawal said that the production could have reached 115.7 mt, but due to the crop damage there was a drop of over 5 mt from the initial assessment.

The agriculture ministry said that the crop was sown on an estimated area of 33.46 million hectares (mh), up from 32.80 mh and there was no incidence of insect pests and diseases during the season. Early and timely sowing of wheat in the country, had led to an increase in area over the last year, it said.

“The additional 0.6 million hectares area planted during 2025-26, is expected to partially offset localized losses,” it added. This is viewed as an admission of higher losses due to crop damage compared to the gains expected from more area.

The government has admitted that unusually high temperatures in February exposed the crop to heat stress, reducing grain filling duration and yield. “Further, untimely rainfall and hailstorms at maturity in a few areas have likely caused localised damage to grain quality and yield,” it said adding “the overall production outlook remains cautiously optimistic owing to several compensatory factors”.

The ministry said that the infestation of weeds was low during the crop growth stages and there was a significant rise in early/timely sowing, which enabled the crop to escape terminal heat during grain filling. Additionally, the enhanced varietal replacement rate (VRR) has accelerated the adoption of high-yielding, climate-resilient, and disease-resistant varieties, which are better equipped to withstand heat and biotic stresses, it said.

On the other hand, the RFMFI President Navneet Chitlangia in a statement has said that the industry seeks not protection, but policy stability and dialogue for fair farmer prices, viability, and affordable consumer food.

He has demanded the government to share periodic cumulative national wheat stock data to aid informed decisions and curb distortions. He has also requested the government to provide clear OMSS pricing, quantities, and schedules via stakeholder consultations to avoid ad-hoc releases that distort markets. “Extend open export licenses without port or buyer restrictions to all wheat products, including bran. Prioritize freight support and incentives for value-added wheat products over raw wheat to boost employment, capacity utilization, and diaspora supply,” he said.

Meanwhile, the wheat procurement was lower 164.32 (lakh tonnes (lt) as of April 23, as against 183.49 lt year-ago and arrivals 19 per cent lower at 203.13 lt. The purchase in Punjab was 75.73 lt against 59.20 lt, in Haryana 65.16 lt against 56.64 lt, in Madhya Pradesh 13.19 lt against 54.09 lt, in Uttar Pradesh 4.08 lt against 5.51 lt, in Rajasthan 5.7 lt against 7.84 lt and in Bihar 17,281 tonne against 9,991 tonne.

Against the minimum support price of Rs 2,585/quintal during 2025-26 crop year (July-June), the all India average mandi (agriculture market yard) price of wheat on April 24 was Rs 2,572/quintal, which included consuming states as well, according to Agmarknet portal. But the average farmgate prices in wheat producing states on April 22 were – Rs 2,498/quintal in Uttar Pradesh, Rs 2,402/quintal in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 2,421/quintal in Gujarat and Rs 2,484/quintal in Rajasthan. But in Haryana and Punjab, farmers are able to receive MSP for their wheat due to public procurement through a strong mandi infrastructure.

Published on April 26, 2026