Russian oil sales to
India are set to ​remain near record highs in April and May
following a ⁠new U.S. sanctions waiver, and refiners have already
secured much of their supply needs via non-sanctioned entities
and vessels, traders said and data showed on Tuesday.

The robust exports ‌to India – the second-largest buyer of
Russian crude after China and largest importer of its flagship
Urals grade – will likely help ‌Moscow replenish state coffers
under pressure due to military spending for the ‌war ⁠in Ukraine.

India shipped in a record 2.25 million barrels ⁠per day of
oil from Russia in March, nearly double February’s volumes,
making Russian oil 50 per cent of its imports.

Russian crude arrivals at Indian ports are set to reach 2.1
million bpd ​for the week of April ‌20 to 27, up from 1.67 million
bpd the previous week, data from shipping analytics firm Kpler
showed.

The mid-April dip in Russian oil supplies was likely caused
by export disruptions resulting from Ukrainian drone attacks on
Russian ‌ports at the end of March, two sources said.

However, Russian ​supplies are expected to average more than
2 million bpd for the full month and will likely remain around
that level, ⁠or possibly increase, in May, three sources involved
in the trade said.

US extends sanctions waiver amid Iran war disruptions

Washington issued a 30-day waiver in mid-March ‌for countries
to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products to help
stabilise global energy markets roiled by its war with Iran. It
renewed the waiver last week.

Despite the sanctions, which are intended to pressure Moscow
to negotiate a peace deal with Kyiv, Russian oil deliveries to
India have continued via non-sanctioned enterprises in the
supply chain, traders and analysts said.

Indian refiners ‌had already been actively purchasing Russian
oil in April before the waiver extension was announced ​and
secured most of the volumes for May delivery as early as last
week, according to the traders.

Refineries in India were ⁠paying premiums of $7 to $9 per
barrel of Russian oil to the dated Brent for ⁠cargoes delivered
in May, similar to what they paid for April imports.

India has recently expanded the pool of Russian insurers
eligible to ‌provide marine cover to ships docking at its ports,
increasing the number to 11 from eight, according to its
Directorate General of Shipping.

Published on April 21, 2026

NPCI Bharat BillPay Limited (NBBL) has onboarded Postal Life Insurance (PLI) as a biller under the insurance category on the Bharat Connect platform, enabling over 1.25 crore policyholders to pay premiums through digital and offline channels.

A biller is a service provider (like an insurer or utility) integrated into the platform to receive payments, acting as a secure, centralized digital repository for real-time bill fetching and payment settlement. State Bank of India (SBI), acting as the Biller Operating Unit (BOU), facilitated the integration, allowing PLI and Rural Postal Life Insurance (RPLI) customers to make renewal premium payments via Bharat Connect-enabled apps, websites and agent networks.PLI, operated by the Department of Posts, services more than 1.25 crore active policies and processes around 2.5 lakh transactions daily.

With this addition, Bharat Connect’s insurance category now includes 65 billers, reflecting the growing shift towards digital premium payments. Highlighting the significance of the move, Director General of Postal Services Jitendra Gupta said, “The integration of Postal Life Insurance (PLI) and Rural Postal Life Insurance (RPLI) with Bharat Connect (BBPS) marks a significant milestone in the Department of Posts’ digital transformation journey.”

He added that the department “continues to modernise its services while upholding its legacy of trust and reliability.” SBI said the collaboration would strengthen access to digital financial services across geographies. “By bringing PLI onto the Bharat Connect platform, we are strengthening the digital payments infrastructure for essential financial services and helping expand access to convenient, reliable and recurring premium payment options for millions of policyholders,” the bank said.

NBBL Managing Director and CEO Noopur Chaturvedi said the integration would simplify payment processes for users. “With this addition, we aim to simplify premium payment journeys of policyholders nationwide. Bharat Connect has established itself as a trusted and convenient platform for recurring payments,” she said. The Bharat Connect ecosystem has been expanding steadily and now includes over 22,640 billers across more than 29 categories. The platform is accessible through over 700 apps and more than 5 lakh offline agents across the country, underlining its scale in India’s digital payments infrastructure.

Published on April 21, 2026

A man looks at a screen outside the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in Mumbai, India, August 28, 2025. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas
| Photo Credit:
th-online Administrator

PL Capital has pegged a target of 27,080 for the Nifty 50, driven by an expected 15 per cent earnings CAGR over FY26–FY28, even as global uncertainties and rising crude prices cloud the near-term outlook.

The brokerage noted that the Nifty has declined 6.6 per cent over the past three months due to persistent foreign institutional investor outflows amid geopolitical tensions, particularly in West Asia. While markets have seen a rebound from recent lows, volatility is expected to persist.

Crude oil spike adds macro pressure

Oil prices have surged sharply and are unlikely to revert to pre-war levels, posing a significant risk for India, which imports 4.3 million barrels per day. This could increase the country’s import bill by over $70 billion annually. While diversification of supply sources may offer some cushion, critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz remain vulnerable.

PL Capital said the impact of higher crude may be relatively contained compared to past shocks due to lower oil intensity of GDP. However, elevated freight and insurance costs, along with limited refining capacity, are expected to keep prices high, with second-order effects weighing on inflation, demand, and manufacturing.

Valuations remain below historical averages

The brokerage highlighted that the Nifty is currently trading at 17 times one-year forward earnings, a 12.4 per cent discount to its 15-year average of 19.4 times. It expects valuations to settle at 17.5 times, implying a target of 27,080 based on FY28 EPS of 1,551.

Earnings and sectoral outlook

Corporate performance remains resilient, with Q4FY26 revenues, EBITDA, and profit before tax projected to grow by 11.3 per cent, 6.3 per cent, and 5.7 per cent, respectively, though margins face pressure from rising input costs. Key growth drivers include automobiles, metals, telecom, NBFCs, healthcare, and construction, while consumption and IT are expected to see steady double-digit growth.

Demand trends and risks ahead

Domestic demand remains steady, supported by rural resilience and improving urban consumption. However, PL Capital cautioned that rising crude prices, inflationary pressures, and potential weather disruptions could weigh on future demand.

The brokerage maintained that while India’s long-term growth story remains intact, the trajectory of markets will depend on how global risks and domestic fundamentals evolve.

Published on April 21, 2026

Marine fuel providers
face tighter supply of higher-density, low-sulphur crude oil,
known as heavy sweet, for blending ‌because of competition from
refiners for the same oil as the Iran ​war disrupts Middle East
imports, industry sources said.

The reduced availability of fuel ⁠blending components is
occurring at the same time refiners are reducing low-sulphur
fuel oil (LSFO) production for marine fuel because of crude
shortages, which is supporting spot premiums for the residual
fuel used to power ships.

Crude ‌grades such as Dar Blend from South Sudan and
Australia’s Vincent and Pyrenees are typically exported to
Singapore and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates ‌because their
low-sulphur content and overall characteristics make for easier
blending with other fuels to ‌craft ⁠0.5 per cent-sulphur fuel oil, known
as very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), for ship refuelling.

Since ⁠the Iran war began on February 28, some of that supply
has been diverted to refineries to make up for disrupted Middle
East supply, according to multiple industry sources and
ship-tracking data.

China has imported more than 300,000 ​metric tonne (2.19
million barrels) per month of ‌Dar Blend during March and April,
up from none in February, Kpler data showed.

“As refineries are running at lower intake due to shortage
of medium sour crude from the Middle East, they will need to
pull in heavier crude alternatives including sweet ‌barrels that
can support maintaining runs,” said June Goh, a senior analyst
at Sparta ​Commodities.

LIMITED HEAVY SWEET CRUDE SUPPLY

The supply of heavy sweet crude was fairly low even before
the war because of the limited output at ⁠the small number of
fields where it is found.

Since the war, the oil has become more expensive, making it
tough to find sufficient supply to blend and produce VLSFO this
month, ‌said a Singapore-based trader active in the market.

“The loss of medium sour crudes and (refinery) run cuts may
divert heavy sweet crudes into the refinery, leaving less
low-sulphur blendstock in the market,” said Emril Jamil, a
senior analyst at LSEG.

The run cuts will also cause refiners to prioritise
distillate fuel output such as diesel and jet fuel over LSFO,
reducing supply for bunkers, he said.
While a surge in Brazilian imports has cooled spot VLSFO
premiums ‌from all-time highs of nearly $140 a metric ton on
March 18, they remained above $17, versus pre-war levels ​of $2.

The shortage of blendstocks may also push blenders to use
unconventional oil, fuel experts said, which may cause quality
issues that can damage ship engines.

“With ⁠supply constrained by West Asia tensions and
disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the use of
unconventional ⁠feedstocks is a predictable response,” said Chris
Turner, technical manager at Integr8 Fuels.

“This isn’t an isolated lapse in quality, but a technical
consequence of market stress, ‌one we have seen repeat across
every major disruption in the past decade,” Turner added.

Vessels should seek clarification from suppliers regarding
the blend components used, including the use ​of alternative
feedstocks, fuel testing agency VPS said in a notice this month.

Published on April 21, 2026