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India banking sector outlook: Credit growth strong, margins to stay under pressure

India banking sector outlook: Credit growth strong, margins to stay under pressure

by | Apr 6, 2026 | Business


India’s banking sector is expected to maintain strong credit growth in the near term, supported by broad-based demand across segments.
| Photo Credit:
iStockphoto

India’s banking sector is expected to sustain credit growth momentum in the near term, though margin pressures are likely to persist, according to a research report by Systematic Institutional Equities. The report highlights that advances growth remains robust, supported by broad-based traction across segments. “The strong advances growth momentum that got built at the end of 3QFY26 has sustained in Q4FY26,” it noted, adding that system-level advances grew 13.8 per cent year-on-year as of mid-March 2026.

Moderation risks ahead

However, growth is likely to moderate going forward amid macro headwinds. The report cautioned, “Growth momentum in advances is expected to slightly moderate, arising from higher inflation and slowdown in economy.”

On profitability, the sector outlook remains constructive. The report said earnings are expected to improve year-on-year, driven by multiple levers, the profitability is expected to improve YoY led by sustained advances growth, higher fee income and lower credit costs.

Margins to stay range-bound

The report says that net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to remain largely stable with mild pressure. “We expect margins to remain range-bound in 4QFY26… Overall… NIMs [are] marginally lower to flat,” the report stated, citing the lagged impact of rate cuts and benefits from deposit repricing.

Further, it added: NIMs are expected to sequentially move in the range of -5bps to +2bps, indicating limited upside in spreads.

A key structural trend flagged is the divergence between credit and deposit growth. “Deposit growth continues to lag advances growth,” the report said, noting that this has pushed the credit-deposit ratio higher to around 83%.

Asset quality trends and risks

On asset quality, the report indicated improving trends in unsecured segments. “The stress in unsecured segment continues to moderate,” it said, with slippages expected to remain under control in the near term.

However, it also warned of emerging risks: “There is an upside risk to slippages in the coming quarters,” suggesting a potential increase in credit costs ahead.

Balanced outlook

Summing up, the report noted that the sector outlook remains steady with balanced risks. NIMs are expected to be stable to better, with some build-up of stress resulting in marginally higher credit cost. It maintains a positive stance on select banks, backed by sustained growth visibility and improving earnings trajectory.

Published on April 6, 2026



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Hi-Tech Pipes posts record quarterly sales of 1.47 lakh mt, up 27% YoY

Hi-Tech Pipes posts record quarterly sales of 1.47 lakh mt, up 27% YoY

by | Apr 6, 2026 | Business


Hi-Tech Pipes Limited on Monday reported its highest-ever quarterly sales volume of 1,47,125 metric tonne (mt) in the fourth quarter of FY26, a jump of approximately 27 per cent from 1,16,032 mt recorded in the same quarter last year.

The New Delhi-based ERW steel pipes and tubes manufacturer also posted an 8 per cent sequential rise over Q3FY26, which had recorded volumes of 1,36,067 mt.

For the full financial year FY26, Hi-Tech Pipes clocked total sales volumes of 5,32,437 mt, up roughly 10 per cent from 4,85,447 mt in FY25 — also a record annual figure for the company.

Managing Director Ajay Kumar Bansal attributed the performance to improved operational efficiency and capacity utilisation. The company cited a strengthening market presence as a key factor behind the sustained volume growth.

Hi-Tech Pipes operates six integrated manufacturing facilities across Sikandrabad (Uttar Pradesh), Sanand (Gujarat), Hindupur (Andhra Pradesh), Khopoli (Maharashtra) and Jammu (J&K), with a combined installed capacity of 10,50,000 mtPA. Its product portfolio spans ERW pipes, hollow sections, cold rolled coils and strips, GP/GC sheets, colour coated coils, road crash barriers and solar mounting structures. The company has a direct marketing presence across more than 20 States through a network of over 550 dealers and distributors.

The company said it remains optimistic about demand trends and expects to sustain its growth trajectory going into FY27.

The shares of Hi-Tech Pipes Limited were trading at ₹78.30 up by ₹1.18 or 1.53 per cent on the NSE today at 10.15 am.

Published on April 6, 2026



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Brent crude edges up as Trump issues ultimatum to Iran

Brent crude edges up as Trump issues ultimatum to Iran

by | Apr 6, 2026 | Business


Brent crude oil futures traded higher on Monday morning after US President Donald Trump threatened to intensify strikes on Iran if it fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At 9.59 am on Monday, June Brent oil futures were at $109.63, up by 0.55 per cent, and May crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $111.17, down by 0.33 per cent. April crude oil futures were trading at ₹10378 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹10408, down by 0.29 per cent, and May futures were trading at ₹9269 against the previous close of ₹9193, up by 0.83 per cent.

In a post on the social media platform Truth Social, Trump said: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!” Urging Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, he threatened to intensify strike on it if it fails to do so.

Meanwhile, Iran rejected his ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz. It said that a part of the revenue from the Strait should be allocated to Iran to compensate for war-related damages.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), which met virtually on Sunday, expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability.

Accordingly, OPEC+ stressed that any actions undermining energy supply security, whether through attacks on infrastructure or disruption of international maritime routes, increase market volatility and weaken the collective efforts to support market stability for the benefit of producers, consumers, and the global economy.

In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in May 2026.

April menthaoil futures were trading at ₹1053 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹1029, up by 2.29 per cent.

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), April kapas contracts were trading at ₹1733.5 in the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹1673.50, up by 3.59 per cent.

April dhaniya futures were trading at ₹13110 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹12870, up by 1.86 per cent.

Published on April 6, 2026



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Banks turn to RBI for relief as rising yields strain their G-Sec portfolio

Banks turn to RBI for relief as rising yields strain their G-Sec portfolio

by | Apr 5, 2026 | Business


istock.com/scyther5
| Photo Credit:
scyther5

Banks have knocked on the Reserve Bank of India’s door, seeking relaxation to spread the provisioning they will need to make for the losses incurred by their bond portfolio due to substantial hardening of yields in the fourth quarter (Q4) of FY26.

Their ask is that the provisioning for mark-to-market losses on investments should be allowed to be spread over four quarters beginning Q4FY26. This will take the pressure off their bottomline.

Spike in G-Sec yields

In the fourth quarter (Q4FY26: January-March), Government securities’ (G-Secs) yields spiked, especially from February-end, with the onset of the West Asia war.

For example, yield of the 10-year benchmark G-Sec (6.48 per cent GS 2035) jumped 45 basis points (bps) to close at 7.04 per cent on March 30, 2026 (last day of trading in Q4FY26) against the December-end 2025 closing level of 6.59 per cent.

The last time banks had made a similar request to RBI was in 2018, and the regulator had allowed banks to spread their losses (due to sharp increase in G-Sec yields) by providing for depreciation on investments over four quarters, commencing from the quarter in which the loss was incurred.

Bond yields and prices are inversely co-related and move in opposite directions. So, with the yield of the aforementioned G-Sec rising 45 bps, its price crashed about ₹3 in the fourth quarter.

The war has triggered concerns in the bond market that rising global crude oil prices could have an inflationary effect in the economy. This, in turn, may require the RBI’s rate setting panel (the monetary policy committee) to up the repo rate in either its June or August monetary policy review to curb inflationary pressures.

Treasury portfolio hit

Bankers say it is not just banks that have taken a hit on their treasury portfolio, but the RBI too could face the heat of spike in G-Sec yields. They pointed out that the central bank purchased G-Secs aggregating about ₹7 lakh crore from banks under its open market operations (OMOs) to provide them durable liquidity in FY26.

“So, the central bank’s portfolio of G-Secs purchased under the OMO window too will be subject to the impact of spike in yields. This could have implications for declaration of dividend to the government for FY26,” said a banker.

The RBI transferred ₹2,68,590 crore as surplus to the Central government for FY25. The Union Budget for FY27 has budgeted a dividend/ surplus of ₹3.16 lakh crore from Reserve Bank of India, nationalised banks and financial institutions against ₹3,04,590 crore (revised) for FY25.

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan, Founder & Managing Partner, Rockfort Fincap LLP, said that while rising yields typically result in mark-to-market pressures on bond portfolios, banks — being natural participants in the bond market— may have largely managed this risk through active portfolio rebalancing and prudent treasury management.

“As a result, treasury losses are likely to have been contained to an extent. At the same time, with strong double-digit credit growth, improved net interest margins, and significantly lower NPAs, the overall profitability of banks in the last fiscal year is expected to remain robust. This provides some cushion to the system, even as bond market volatility persists,” he said.

Published on April 5, 2026



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Outstanding bank loans against shares hit 9-month high

Outstanding bank loans against shares hit 9-month high

by | Apr 5, 2026 | Business


Loans against shares are secured loans where borrowers pledge listed equities or bonds as collateral.
| Photo Credit:
phakphum patjangkata

Even as markets have remained volatile for much of FY26, the loans against shares and bonds have continued to rise. 

According to RBI data, outstanding gross bank credit against shares and bonds stood at ₹10,264 crore as of January 2026, up 5.1 per cent from the ₹9,766 crore at the same time last year. It was at ₹7,677 crore in January 2023 and ₹7,340 crore in January 2024.

Loans against shares are secured loans where borrowers pledge listed equities or bonds as collateral. Banks and NBFCs offer these at defined loan-to-value (LTV) ratios with interest rates linked to tenure and risk.

The figure, after steady increases through the last few months, is now at an nine-month high in January 2026.

However, banks hold a small fraction of the total credit against shares as NBFCs have a larger play in this segment. For instance, Bajaj Finance’s total loan against securities AUM as of December 2025 stood at ₹3,562 crores, up 26 per cent from the same period last year.

Vivek Iyer, Partner and Financial Services Risk Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat, said that during softer market conditions borrowers use existing portfolios to fuel immediate-term liquidity leading to increased lending against shares.

“When the markets are weak, investors are typically unwilling to liquidate their holdings at lower valuations. They tend to want to hold on to the securities for a longer time in the hope that the market will recover,” he said. In such a scenario, loans against shares provide an interim source of liquidity, allowing individuals to raise funds while continuing to stay invested in the market, he added.

Iyer mentioned that borrowers are likely to continue holding on to these loans even if stock prices remain under pressure. “Given the uncertain external economic scenario, borrowers will hold on to the loans in the hope that interest rates will be reduced, bringing down their overall credit burden,” he said. 

Generation gap

Beyond cyclical market conditions, there are also structural factors. Iyer noted that the younger demographic tends to have a lower base of physical collateral such as property but a higher exposure to equities and hence securities are becoming an alternative collateral option to borrow.

Certain policy tailwinds might also have spurred loan activity. In October of last year, the Central bank had removed the regulatory ceiling on such loans from ₹20 lakh to ₹1 crore. LTV for loans against shares was also proposed to increase to 60 per cent from the previous 50 per cent.

RBI data shows other personal loans have also seen growth in the last 12 months. Loans against fixed deposits went up 13 per cent year-on-year at ₹1,54,360 crore, while loans against gold jewellery went up 1.2x times to ₹4,00,517 crore. Overall personal loans went up by 15 per cent to ₹67, 23,042 crore.  

Published on April 5, 2026



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