India’s imports of Russian crude are expected to plunge to a near four-year low early next year, after months of US pressure. As workarounds emerge and the Kremlin cranks up its own charm offensive, however, the question is how long that drop will last.
India has until now been one of the great beneficiaries of restrictions on Russia’s crude industry, becoming the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian crude as curbs resulted in deep price discounts. It took a near-record 2.1 million barrels a day in June, or roughly 45 per cent of its total imports.
By contrast, oil cargoes arriving in India from Russia next month could fall as far as 600,000 barrels a day, according to people involved in the purchases — the weakest level since early 2022, when the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine.
That’s down to Trump administration’s aggressive campaign against purchases it has said are funding the Kremlin’s war machine, and sanctions against top producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. (The people could not be named as they are not authorized to speak to the media.)
Still, even January’s low is well above pre-war levels. More importantly, according to traders and refiners, volumes could rebound as unsanctioned suppliers squeeze in and a vast number of new trading intermediaries appear.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also been in Delhi this week to press his case on trade, promising to continue “uninterrupted shipments of fuel.”
A trade deal with the US, meanwhile, has been slow to materialize, making it less imperative for India to toe Washington’s line. President Donald Trump said last month he would lower punitive tariffs on India “at some point.”
US sanctions add hurdles, but are not enough to completely stop the trade, said Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “If your position on Russian oil is that you buy it not out of ideological affinity with Russia, but because it’s a product that suits you at a price that suits you, then you will keep doing it,” she said.
Since July, curbs on India’s Russian oil flows have steadily increased, beginning with European sanctions on Rosneft-backed refiner Nayara Energy Ltd., the bloc’s first such penalties.
The Trump administration, eager to boost its exports and to pressure Putin, then raised the temperature with its public criticism — an abrupt departure from a previous policy that had tolerated purchases under a Group of Seven-imposed price cap — and imposed a 50 per cent tariff.
Neither the levy nor the later sanctioning of Rosneft and Lukoil — a body blow to the trade — have cut off flows completely, though concerns over future disruption helped push November imports to 1.8 million barrels a day, as deals were brought forward.
December levels are likely to come in around 1 to 1.2 million barrels a day, according to Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining and modeling at Kpler, still reflecting the flurry of shipments booked by refiners before sanctions took effect.
While Modi’s government hasn’t issued any formal guidance on Russian crude, even state refiners are conservative when it comes to sanctions and have largely pulled back.
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, and HPCL-Mittal Energy have halted purchases altogether, while Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp are taking only limited, non-sanctioned volumes.
The bigger question, though, is what comes next.
Putin received a warm welcome in Delhi, but despite the scale of the trade, his brief visit included few specific comments on oil — underscoring India’s delicate balancing act, as it tries to shore up longstanding defense and political ties with Russia while also avoiding incurring Washington’s wrath and sabotaging an imminent trade deal.
But the longer it takes for Trump to agree to that deal, the more time there is to question the financial and political cost of cutting back on cheap crude.
“If the deal drags on, then more and more people will find ways or more pathways will be made to enable such non-sanctioned barrels to still be bought legitimately by the Indian purchasers,” said June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities.
To replace Russian oil, Indian refiners have had to turn to pricier Middle Eastern grades. They have stepped up US purchases in an effort to stay on the right side of Trump, even exploring areas such as Guyana and Brazil to make up for lost barrels.
They were also forced to scramble for vessels as freight rates spiked. On the other side of the trade, Russia too is feeling the squeeze — after discounts, its crude is fetching just $40–$45 a barrel, according to the people.
January will almost certainly mark a drop, and one that leaves open the question of whether the only other major buyer, China, can pick up the slack.
The extent of the fall and the outlook for the coming months, however, will depend on moving parts including Washington’s willingness to compromise on tariffs — but also the rapid emergence of new workarounds, as supply chains are rebuilt and discounts widen.
In recent weeks, new names including Eastimplex Stream FZE, Grewale Hub FZE and Tyndale Solutions FZE have appeared on port reports as traders shipping Russian crude into Vadinar.
“Indian refiners may also gradually find ways to shift towards non-sanctioned Russian entities, use of shadow carriers, adopt ship to ship transfers, etc in the future to balance geopolitical and economic considerations,” analyst Bineet Banka at Nomura wrote in a note this week.
The ultimate figure will hinge on Reliance Industries, until recently the single-largest buyer of Russia’s crude exports and a particular target for criticism from the Trump administration. It has stopped buying Russian oil for its export-focused plant and has said it will comply with applicable sanctions, but it also has a term deal with Rosneft that could add as much as 350,000 barrels a day in January.
A Reliance spokesman did not respond to emailed queries.
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Published on December 6, 2025
