‘RBI likely to be on a pause through 2026’

‘RBI likely to be on a pause through 2026’


In an exclusive interaction with businessline, Devang Shah, Head-Fixed Income, Axis Mutual Fund, discusses RBI’s policy rate action, demand supply dynamics in the G-sec market and the way forward for fixed income investors.

The RBI cut 125 basis points between February and December last year. Do you think that the current rate cycle has come to an end?

As you rightly summed up, RBI has taken a lot on monetary policy action in the last 12 months and they have been very supportive to the growth agenda. We also need to keep in mind that there has been more than ₹18 lakh crore of liquidity infusion in the last 12 months through various actions OMOs, CRR cuts, FX swaps etc. This is a big sum.

The Budget has been quite supportive for growth. They have continued with fiscal consolidation, but they’re focused on growth too. There is significant increase in spending on capital investment plus increase in expenditure towards major schemes. So, the RBI need not worry about giving any further growth impulse. The second good news in the last few days is the trade deal with the US. If tariffs continued at 50 per cent, the growth in H2 of 2026 could have been weaker.

So, with that context, we believe that growth can be in the 6.75 to 7 per cent band for FY27. As far as inflation goes, yes, there can be an uptick in inflation in the second half of the year, but not immediately. But at this point of time, when we look at the full year inflation, or even the H2 inflation, it doesn’t go above 4.75 per cent. And with that context, I think RBI can stay on a pause for most of this year.

If we see a bad monsoon or a significant uptick in inflation, then probably RBI might look at some bit of rate increase in the second half of this year. But I will assign a very low probability to it.

Yes, I think the rate cut cycle has come to an end, because there is no further impulse needed for growth and H2 inflation can be higher due to new inflation series, higher commodity prices, and so on.

What is your view on the gross market borrowing of ₹17.2 lakh crore in the Budget? Does the market have the capability to absorb the supply?

From the bond market perspective, we look at two or three aspects. The quality of the Budget, the fiscal deficit and the borrowings. The Budget numbers seem quite conservative, be it on tax revenue, on the nominal GDP, even, disinvestment. The fiscal deficit and the glide path to bring the debt to GDP number lower looks okay. The gross borrowing of ₹17.25 lakh crore seems to be slightly higher. Our estimates were closer to ₹16.5 to ₹16.75 lakh crore.

The inclusion of the Indian bonds in Bloomberg active global aggregator index can help bridge the demand supply gap somewhat as that can fetch $25 billion of flows. The flows could however be shifted to the second half of this year or next year.

We believe that with the ₹17.2 lakh crore of gross borrowing, there is a demand supply gap of close to ₹2 -2.5 lakh crore, even after assuming, ₹4-5 lakh crore of OMOs by the RBI. Unless the Bloomberg flows come in there can be some impact of this large borrowing on government bonds.

What is the range that the 10-year bond yield can move in the next year or so?

We see the 10-year yield in the 6.60-6.80 band from January to March 2026. But if there is no action, if RBI disappoints a bit on the OMOs or if they happen mostly in the second half of the year, then we might see yields inching up to reach 6.80-7 per cent, April onwards. So, I would say for the full year, the band can be between 6.75 to 7 for the most part.

What is your view on the global bond yields? Does the hardening of US yields affect domestic yields as well?

Any kind of larger global reversal in yields does have some bit of impact on Indian bond markets. But, they’re now not so massively correlated as they were before. We have time and again explained that the correlation is to a large extent broken between US bonds and Indian bonds.

In 2022, US treasuries were closer to 2 per cent. Today, they are at 4.25 per cent. At the same time, the Indian 10-year yield in 2022 was 7.5 per cent. Today it is at 6.75 per cent. So, despite all the rate hikes, despite all the noise and concerns on the US treasuries, our bond markets have actually rallied.

Global central bankers now would be on a pause because they have done a lot of rate easing over the last 12-18 months.

Hence, we believe the large part of the global rate cut cycle is behind us. A 25-50 bp rate cut by the US Fed this year is possible, but I would not attribute a significant yield movement due to this.

What is your advice for fixed income investors ? What kind of strategies fund managers are likely to pursue?

I think 2024 was the year for duration, when long bonds gave the highest returns; 2025 was a year of liquidity, which led to steepness in the curve, where we saw the short end of the curve massively outperforming long bonds. In 2026, RBI will be on a pause for the most part of the year. If they start getting worried about inflation, a reversal of the interest rate cycle is possible. So, it will be good to stick to the short end of the curve and buy 1-2-year AAA corporate bonds which are available at significantly higher yields.

For investors going for tactical bets, there’s a significant rise in spreads for State development loans due to higher supply. Retail investors can look at gilt funds that have a higher allocation to State government securities.

As far as fund strategy is concerned, investors should always focus on two aspects: investment horizon and risk-return analysis.

If an investor is looking for shorter term investment horizons (3-6 months), one should always target parking in solutions like money market strategies. In case of a medium-term investor looking to invest for up to two years, income plus arbitrage fund of funds is a very good category, which is a blend of debt fund and arbitrage fund in the ratio of 65:35. They are also taxed like equity funds, if you stay invested for two years.

(Devang Shah, Head of Fixed Income at Axis Mutual Fund, joined Axis AMC in 2012 as a Fund Manager. With over 20 years of industry experience, he manages fixed-income strategies, navigating bond markets with a focus on risk and yield optimisation)



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Balance Beats Bravado When Cycles Turn

Balance Beats Bravado When Cycles Turn


While Indian equity markets swung between peaks and troughs over the past two years, gold and silver glittered and scaled record highs. And one mutual fund category turned this cross-asset divergence to its advantage: Multi-Asset Allocation Funds (MAAFs). By spreading investments across asset classes, MAAFs delivered a compelling 16 per cent CAGR during this period, outperforming 8-12 per cent returns by hybrid peers, market-capitalisation-oriented equity funds and broader benchmarks.

The MAAF category also attracted nearly ₹93,000 crore in net inflows over two years and now holds ₹1.75 lakh crore in AUM, making it one of the most sought-after segments in recent times.

As per regulations, MAAFs are hybrid mutual funds that invest in at least three asset classes, typically equities, debt and commodities such as gold and silver, with a minimum 10 per cent allocation to each. Currently, 44 schemes operate under this diversification mandate, though they follow widely differing asset-allocation strategies and risk profiles.

This raises two critical questions for investors. First, if a well-balanced, proven portfolio has traditionally been constructed by combining equity, hybrid, debt and commodity funds over time, where does a predefined, all-in-one MAAF fit? Second, with 44 schemes offering vastly different asset mixes and risk profiles, which MAAF truly aligns with your financial goals? Choosing the wrong one could result in unintended risk or missed return opportunities.

In this article, we examine their portfolio strategies, performance track records and assess suitability for different investors.

Classification

Beyond traditional actively-managed MAAFs, a newer wave of Fund of Funds (FoFs) has entered the space following regulatory changes in February 2025. Based on their structure and investment approach, these funds broadly fall into three categories.

One, Active Multi-Asset Allocation Funds, which rely on dynamic, model and manager-driven allocation.

Two, Multi-Asset Passive FoFs, which invest in a basket of passive index funds and ETFs across asset classes.

Three, Multi-Asset Omni FoFs, which combine passive and active fund structures within a single umbrella.

Active Multi-Asset Allocation Funds

Currently, 33 funds in this category aim to deliver diversification across asset classes. This include equities, arbitrage strategies, debt, gold, silver, overseas equities, and REITs and InvITs. Of these schemes, six have track records exceeding seven years.

Asset allocation in these funds is largely dynamic and tactical, positioning portfolios in response to shifting market conditions, macroeconomic signals and emerging opportunities. The objective is to optimise risk-adjusted returns. Most schemes blend quantitative inputs such as valuation metrics and economic indicators with active fund manager judgment to fine-tune allocation decisions.

These active MAAFs can be further classified based on their allocation to long equity: Funds with 65 per cent and above in equities, funds with less than 65 per cent in equities and those with nil long equity exposure.

Among funds allocating 65 per cent or more to equities, notable track records are seen in offerings from ICICI Prudential MF, HDFC MF and quant MF. In the below 65 per cent segment, established names include SBI MF and Nippon India MF. Edelweiss MAAF, meanwhile, is the only fund in the category with no long equity exposure.

While the common objective across the category is to balance risk and returns, investment approaches vary significantly. This is in terms of asset allocation mix, equity intensity and overall risk profile. Here, we explain the major differences in asset mix that investors need to watch out for.

Nil equity allocation

Most schemes maintain exposure to unhedged equities, with one notable exception — Edelweiss Multi Asset Allocation Fund. Structured as a debt-oriented strategy, the fund primarily relies on arbitrage positions across equities, gold and silver, supplemented by accrual income from debt instruments. Consequently, its return profile resembles that of debt and arbitrage funds. Over the past year, it delivered around 7 per cent, broadly in line with the arbitrage and short-duration fund categories, which generated average returns of about 6 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively.

Higher equity allocation

Currently, 21 MAAFs invest at least 65 per cent in equities. Most actively deploy arbitrage strategies, including ICICI Pru, Quant, Bandhan and HDFC MAAF. However, funds that maintained higher unhedged equity allocations over the past year include Baroda BNP Paribas, Groww and Kotak MAAF, which held average exposures between 68 per cent and 70 per cent. A higher unhedged equity position tends to generate stronger long-term returns but also increases risk.

Mid- and small-cap heavy portfolios

Some funds maintain a significant tilt toward mid- and small-cap stocks. Over the past year, LIC MF (30 per cent), Bandhan (26 per cent) and HSBC MAAF (26 per cent) had the highest exposure to this segment, compared with the category average of 15 per cent. While this positioning can enhance return potential, it also raises volatility and downside risk. Conversely, funds such as HDFC, Sundaram and Shriram MAAF maintained higher large-cap allocations, averaging 55-57 per cent compared with the category average of 39 per cent.

Exposure to gold and silver derivatives

While most multi-asset funds gain exposure to gold and silver through ETFs or physical holdings, some schemes, for instance, from Edelweiss, ICICI Prudential, and WhiteOak Capital, also use commodity derivatives. Derivatives allow managers to take exposure with lower upfront capital and greater tactical flexibility. However, such instruments are meant to capture arbitrage opportunities between spot and futures prices and do not replicate the capital appreciation characteristics of direct holdings.

Exposure to industrial commodities

Tata Multi Asset Opportunities Fund differentiates itself by gaining exposure not only to gold, but also to industrial commodities such as crude oil, copper, zinc and aluminium through exchange-traded commodity derivatives, typically holding up to 5 per cent in these exposures. ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund has also taken small positions in base metal derivatives. These allocations provide indirect access to industrial commodities that are otherwise difficult to hold directly.

Overseas allocation

About seven funds have allocated to overseas equities over the past year. As of January 2026, DSP MAAF (15 per cent), Invesco India MAAF (14 per cent), Bandhan MAAF (8 per cent) and Nippon India MAAF (6 per cent) had notable exposure. While Invesco India primarily allocates to US equities, DSP and Nippon India offer broader global diversification.

Allocation breadth

A few MAAFs from WhiteOak Capital, ICICI Pru and Aditya Birla SL invested across seven asset classes in at least 10 of the past 12 months. These include domestic equities, arbitrage, debt, gold, silver, overseas equities, and REITs and InvITs.

Silver versus gold

Over the past six months (July 2025 to January 2026), aggregate gold allocation rose from ₹7,700 crore to ₹20,000 crore, while silver exposure declined from ₹6,200 crore to ₹5,500 crore. Funds like Kotak and SBI MAAFs currently allocate more to silver than gold. Unlike gold, which functions largely as a safe-haven asset, silver behaves more like an industrial commodity, adding both volatility and return potential.

Passive FOF MAAFs

India’s FoF landscape has entered a more structured phase following SEBI’s standardised framework issued in February 2025. Within this revamped structure, two emerging segments are Multi-Asset Passive FoFs and Multi-Asset Omni FoFs.

A Multi-Asset Passive FoF invests exclusively in passive underlying schemes such as index funds and ETFs across asset classes. These schemes are required to allocate to equity, debt and commodity funds, with a minimum 10 per cent in each. Portfolio construction is largely rule-based and benchmark-aligned, leaving limited scope for fund manager discretion. Currently, five such funds from Aditya Birla Sun Life, Motilal Oswal, Bandhan and Zerodha together manage about ₹392 crore in assets, with regular plan expense ratios ranging between 0.5 per cent and 0.6 per cent.

In contrast, a Multi-Asset Omni FoF combines active and passive underlying schemes within a single structure. This allows AMCs to blend alpha-seeking active strategies in select asset classes with passive exposure. While the Omni approach can enhance risk-adjusted returns if active calls succeed, it also introduces fund-selection risk and higher layered costs. Currently, six Omni FoFs manage around ₹5,364 crore, with regular plan expense ratios ranging between 1.1 per cent and 1.5 per cent.

Suitability: Investors should examine several aspects before investing. First, FoFs levy their own expense ratio in addition to the costs of underlying schemes. Second, although the framework prescribes minimum allocation thresholds, actual asset weights can vary significantly across schemes. Third, passive FoFs may experience tracking differences due to ETF spreads, while Omni FoFs can face portfolio overlap across active holdings.

The regulatory overhaul has also led to scheme rationalisation. AMCs were required to re-categorise existing FoFs under the new structure by August 31, 2025, which means historical performance may not fully reflect the current mandate. Recently, fresh inflows into ICICI Prudential Passive Multi-Asset FoF were suspended by the fund house. Since its launch, the scheme has maintained exposure to diversified overseas equity assets. However, under the SEBI’s revised FoF framework, allocations must now be country-specific, region-specific, or theme/sector-based. To align with the new regulations, the AMC has opted for grandfathering. As a result, the scheme will no longer accept fresh investments and will either be merged or wound up within three years — by January 2029.

In terms of suitability, Multi-Asset Passive FoFs are appropriate for cost-conscious investors seeking disciplined asset allocation through a simple structure. Multi-Asset Omni FoFs may suit investors comfortable with active risk and confident in an AMC’s ability to select outperforming funds.

What should you do?

Recent outperformance of MAAFs has been largely driven by allocations to gold and silver. To evaluate their core capability, it is useful to examine performance before the precious metals rally. Between June 2018 and June 2024, three-year rolling return data show that MAAFs with over 65 per cent equity exposure delivered an average CAGR of 18 per cent, broadly matching the 17.9 per cent return of the Nifty 50 Total Return Index. Category leaders such as quant Multi Asset Fund and ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund delivered about 30 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.

MAAFs have also shown resilience during downturns. In the Covid-led crash of 2020, these funds declined by an average 26 per cent, compared with a 38 per cent fall in the Nifty 50 TRI. However, balanced advantage funds (BAFs) managed to contain well with -23 per cent. Likewise, during the correction between September 2024 and March 2025, they fell around 8 per cent versus a 15 per cent decline in the index and a 10 per cent fall in BAFs, underscoring their cushioning ability.

From a taxation perspective, MAAFs, including active and passive FoFs, fall into two buckets. Active MAAFs with 65 per cent or more in domestic equities qualify for equity taxation — 20 per cent short-term capital gains if redeemed within 12 months and 12.5 per cent long-term capital gains on gains exceeding ₹1.25 lakh annually, if held beyond 12 months.

Those with less than 65 per cent equity exposure, along with FoFs, are taxed as other than specified mutual fund schemes — short-term gains (within 24 months) are taxed at slab rates, while long-term gains (after 24 months) are taxed at 12.5 per cent without indexation.

MAAFs have demonstrated their ability to cushion volatility and benefit from cross-asset opportunities. The real question is how they fit into your overall portfolio.

For investors who lack the time or discipline to rebalance across asset classes, a MAAF can serve as a convenient core holding, offering built-in diversification and tactical allocation. However, for seasoned investors already managing a structured mix of equity, debt and commodities, adding a MAAF may create overlap and reduce control over asset weights.

With a larger number of schemes following widely different allocation strategies, selection becomes crucial. The wrong choice can distort your portfolio’s risk profile — either by increasing unintended equity exposure or diluting growth potential. In conclusion, if simplicity and disciplined rebalancing are priorities, a carefully-chosen MAAF can work well. If customisation and precision matter more, a self-constructed portfolio may be preferable only if you are sophisticated enough to manage multiple asset classes.

Investors should look beyond the category label and examine each fund’s long-term equity allocation range, commodity strategy and consistency across market cycles. AMC literature, such as product notes and factsheets, provides critical insights into these aspects.

Investors seeking equity-like returns and comfortable with drawdowns can consider 65+ per cent equity MAAFs, such as those offered by ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund, Quant Multi Asset Allocation Fund and HDFC Multi-Asset Allocation Fund. Those looking for better downside cushioning with lower equity exposure may prefer sub-65 per cent equity options like the Nippon India Multi Asset Allocation Fund, SBI Multi Asset Allocation Fund, and UTI Multi Asset Allocation Fund. Investors seeking debt-like stability, with minimal equity participation and limited upside potential can consider the Edelweiss Multi Asset Allocation Fund.

Published on February 14, 2026



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Whiteoak Capital Flexicap Fund: Should You Invest?

Whiteoak Capital Flexicap Fund: Should You Invest?


After a period of prolonged volatility over the past 16 months with many pockets of mid and small-caps especially facing the rough end of the markets, some semblance of order seems to be returning for domestic investors.

With the India-US trade deal agreement in place and penal tariffs removed, closely following the FTA with the European Union late in January, there is a lot more macro certainty.

Controlled inflation, reasonably low interest rates, revival in domestic demand, a stable Budget and recovery in corporate earnings signal some positivity, though valuations still may not be in the inexpensive zone; that said, some segments have valuation comfort after the correction over the past year-and-a-half.

A flexicap fund that straddles market caps with a bias for bluechips may be suited for investors from a long-term perspective.

In this regard, Whiteoak Capital Flexicap fund is suitable for investors with a reasonable risk appetite and a horizon of at least five-plus years. Taking the SIP route to investing would help in averaging costs and lowering volatility.

Healthy performance

Though Whiteoak Capital Flexicap has only a track record of about 3.5 years, it has proven itself as an above-average performer in the category.

The past 3-odd years have seen  geopolitical escalations, trade tariffs, supply chain disruptions, wars and AI-led disruption. Funds that managed to wade through these challenges and correcting broader markets, and yet deliver sturdy returns, need closer attention.

When point-to-point returns are considered over the past one, two and three-year periods, the fund has outperformed the Nifty 500 TRI. The fund’s three-year CAGR stands at 21.4 per cent, while the Nifty 500 TRI delivered 17.6 per cent in the same period.

In rolling 1-year returns from August 2022 to February 2026, the fund has outperformed the Nifty 500 TRI for over 95 per cent of the time.

The mean returns of the fund over aforementioned rolling period and timeframe is 23.3 per cent, while the Nifty 500 TRI gave 18.6 per cent.

A monthly SIP over the past three years in the Whiteoak Capital Flexicap fund would have given 15.6 per cent (XIRR) returns. A similar SIP in the Nifty 500 TRI would have delivered 12.6 per cent.

The fund has an upside capture ratio of 125.4, indicating that its NAV rises much more than the benchmark during rallies. It has a downside capture ratio of 93.8, suggesting that the NAV falls much less than the benchmark during corrections. A score of 100 indicates that a fund performs in line with its benchmark. This inference is based on returns between February 2023 and February 2026. Other key risk measures such as Jensen’s alpha, Sortino ratio and Sharpe ratio are all healthy.

All data cited pertain to the direct plan of the fund.

Deep diversification

Whiteoak Capital Flexicap maintains an extremely well-diversified portfolio with fairly diffused individual stock holdings. The number of stocks in the portfolio has always been well over a hundred. Its December month portfolio shows 131 stocks being held.

Barring a couple of companies, individual shares account for less than 3 per cent even among the top 10-20 holdings.

In terms of market segments, the fund has always been biased towards large-cap stocks. These bluechips have generally made up about 55-58 per cent of the overall portfolio.

Mid and small-cap stocks have accounted for 38-45 per cent of the portfolio, with a bias towards the latter market cap segment.

The large-cap heaviness gives the portfolio the needed stability. Given that the stock holdings are highly diffused, a high proportion of mid and small-cap holdings still does not substantially increase the risks of the overall portfolio.

Banking and finance stocks have been the top sector holdings for the fund across timelines. This exposure has helped the fund outperform, as the segment was among the very few in the market that outperformed in the past 18 months.

Interestingly, IT – an underperforming segment in the last 2-3 years – has been among the top holdings of the company over the years. However, the diffused holdings and exposure to mid-cap IT stocks (some of which have done relatively better) have helped the fund remain relatively insulated to the churn in the segment.

In recent portfolios, the fund has reduced exposure to consumer durables and retailing segments due to the structural challenges in these sectors and their relatively lackadaisical market performance.

The fund has upped stakes in automobiles, pharmaceuticals and telecom services firms, all of which are expected to do well for the foreseeable future.

Overall, Whiteoak Capital Flexicap fund is a good addition to the satellite portion of an investor’s portfolio as a diversifier.

Published on February 14, 2026



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IDFC First Bank allots 14.47 lakh equity shares under ESOS

IDFC First Bank allots 14.47 lakh equity shares under ESOS


IDFC First Bank has allotted 14,47,385 equity shares under ESOS on 13 February 2026. Post allotment, the issued and paid-up equity share capital of the Bank stands increased from Rs 85,97,74,46,550/-
comprising of 8,59,77,44,655 equity shares of Rs 10/- each fully paid-up to Rs 85,99,19,20,400/- comprising of 8,59,91,92,040 equity shares of Rs 10/- each fully paid-up

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First Published: Feb 14 2026 | 5:32 PM IST



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IDFC First Bank allots 14.47 lakh equity shares under ESOS

Time Technoplast wins first trial order worth Rs 2.30 cr


For supply of Type IV composite hydrogen storage system

Time Technoplast has secured its first trial order for a Type IV composite hydrogen storage system valued at approximately Rs 2.30 crore.

The project has been awarded to the Company through an EPC contractor for a Navaratna Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) in the energy sector, with the end use supporting the Indian Armed Forces.

The scope of work includes the design, engineering, manufacture in India, supply, integration, and commissioning of a Hydrogen Cascade Storage System with a usable capacity of 200 kg at 250 bar, utilizing advanced Type IV Composite Hydrogen Gas Cylinders. The system will feature a cascaded configuration, integrated safety devices, and comprehensive mechanical and environmental protection toensure safe, reliable, and efficient operation. Execution will be carried out in coordination with the end user and relevant stakeholders, in full compliance with applicable safety, quality, and performance requirements for defence and strategic installations.

 

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IDFC First Bank allots 14.47 lakh equity shares under ESOS

Azad Engineering consolidated net profit rises 44.27% in the December 2025 quarter


Sales rise 31.74% to Rs 158.72 crore

Net profit of Azad Engineering rose 44.27% to Rs 34.51 crore in the quarter ended December 2025 as against Rs 23.92 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2024. Sales rose 31.74% to Rs 158.72 crore in the quarter ended December 2025 as against Rs 120.48 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2024.

ParticularsQuarter EndedDec. 2025Dec. 2024% Var.Sales158.72120.48 32 OPM %39.1935.54 PBDT62.0241.48 50 PBT47.7834.04 40 NP34.5123.92 44

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First Published: Feb 14 2026 | 5:20 PM IST



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