US oil prices settled more than 11 per cent higher and Brent soared nearly 8 per cent on Thursday in volatile trading, as traders worried about prolonged disruptions to oil supply the day after President Donald Trump said the United States would continue attacks on Iran.
Brent crude futures closed $7.87, or 7.78 per cent, higher at $109.03 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $11.42, or 11.41 per cent, at $111.54 per barrel, settling at their biggest absolute price rise since 2020.
Both benchmarks remained below highs near $120 a barrel touched earlier in the conflict.
Trump said military operations would be intensified, but did not specify a timeline for ending hostilities. He gave no details on any steps that could lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
“We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” Trump said. “We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong.”
Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic in the strait, an Iranian foreign ministry official said, after a Bloomberg report.
Iran has effectively shut down the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped, in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Reopening it has become a priority for governments around the world as energy prices soar.
“The real question on traders’ minds is that if Iran’s oil infrastructure is possibly now at risk, and with more damage in the area now very likely, even if left intact the restart of oil flows in the region (is) now looking to be delayed further,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
WTI, which typically trades below Brent, was pricing nearly $3 over Brent as the US contract was trading for May deliveries, while the Brent contract was trading for June deliveries. WTI’s premium over the global benchmark was the highest in a year.
“Market’s expectation is that if (the) Strait of Hormuz opens up in (a) couple of weeks this risk premium will immediately go down,” said John Kilduff, Partner at Again Capital.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said on Thursday that a swift war resolution may mean economic impact could be pretty moderate, adding that the economic outlook was uncertain due to the crisis. The United States has some buffers to impacts from the war, Logan said.
Brent crude prices could average $95 a barrel in the base case and $130 a barrel in the bull case in the second half of the year, Citi said, while oil prices could climb to between $120 and $130 a barrel in the near-term, JP Morgan said. Prices could rise above $150 if the Strait remains closed into the middle of May, JP Morgan added.
US oil rigs, an indicator of future output, rose by two to 411 this week, energy services firm Baker Hughes said. An increase in prices for oil to be delivered in future months has producers considering adding more rigs, but they have cautioned that they would like to see the higher prices hold for longer to do so.
Front-month WTI traded at its largest-ever premium over the second-month and seventh-month contract on Thursday.
Talks on reopening Hormuz
Britain is hosting a virtual meeting of around 40 countries to discuss options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not due to attend.
OPEC+, meanwhile, is likely to weigh a further oil output increase on Sunday, sources said. This would position members to add more barrels should the Strait of Hormuz reopen but is not likely to meaningfully increase supply before then.
In Russia, Ukraine’s strikes on port infrastructure, pipelines and refineries have reduced export capability by 1 million barrels per day, or a fifth of total capacity, sources say, enough to set the stage for imminent production cuts.
The head of the International Energy Agency also said that supply disruptions would start to affect Europe’s economy in April, after the region had previously been shielded by cargoes contracted before the start of the war.
