Volatility in gold prices has not deterred buyers, says Titan MD Chawla

Volatility in gold prices has not deterred buyers, says Titan MD Chawla



Volatility in gold prices has not deterred Indian buyers, with customers increasingly treating price corrections as opportunities to enter the market, similar to equity investors, Titan Company Managing Director Ajoy Chawla said.


Many consumers who had earlier deferred purchases, being fence sitters due to rising prices, have now shifted strategy, choosing to buy during dips rather than wait indefinitely, he said.


“People have burnt their fingers being fence sitters, so they are now using every correction to come into the market, as they do in the share market,” Chawla told PTI.


He acknowledged that volatility continues to mark the gold trade, but demand remains resilient. “Customers will try to participate. Those who missed out will try to come in,” he said, underlining the strong sentiment around the yellow metal.

 


Titan’s jewellery division, which includes the flagship Tanishq brand, has benefitted from this trend, supported by product innovation and festive demand in the December quarter.


Gold prices have shown significant volatility in early February 2026, fluctuating between highs near Rs 1.61 lakh per 10 grams and recent drops amid global cues and profit-taking.


According to Chawla, many fence sitters who waited in the first half of the year began purchasing gold ahead of the festive and wedding season, anticipating that prices would not decline further.


Global uncertainty also played a role in driving sentiment, he said, adding that cultural factors continue to underpin demand.


“So weddings, festivals and milestones mean that customers, in fact women, must be telling their husbands that all your share market is on one side. But see, we have always been the wiser ones and now you better listen to me when I have to tell you that you buy jewellery. It’s an asset, not an expense,” he said.


This anecdotal dynamic, Chawla suggested, is playing out in many households, with men becoming “a little sobered lot” as women assert jewellery’s role as a secure investment.


He further noted that a sense of FOMO (fear of missing out) also drove demand.


“So there was a FOMO. People jumped into it, saying a better buy now than regret later. And that went on, I think all the way into January,” said Chawla.


However, he also cautioned against making predictions, pointing to volatility over the last two to three years.


“Sometimes you can not predict how a month will go. The first half may go very well, and the second half you will see a certain slowdown, and the other way around also,” he said.


The company’s approach, he explained, has been to maximise gains when demand is strong.


“When the going is good, when there is occasion to buy, whether it’s a wedding or festival, we should go all out, make the most out of it because we don’t know what will happen one month later or 15 days later,” Chawla said.


He pointed out that gold prices remain connected to broader macroeconomic factors such as US Federal Reserve interest rates, bond yields and global liquidity.


“We cannot predict it, but… whatever we have heard from many investment advisors, many people who are in that financial sector, their view is that there is a secular need for central banks worldwide to de-risk and therefore they see gold as a structural play,” Chawla said.


At the same time, he cautioned that volatility is “inevitable” as there will be some corrections from time to time as in any commodity pricing.


“There will be corrections, there will be ups and downs, there will be volatility. So I mean it, it can be risky, but if you are playing the long game, it may not matter,” he added.


Asked about the December quarter, Chawla said it was “fantastic”, and the growth was led by Titan’s jewellery division, which reported a spike of 45.6 per cent in its revenue to Rs 23,492 crore.


Chawla said Titan chose not to compromise on inventory, retail investments or marketing during the festive and weeding season in the December quarter.


“In fact, we went overboard on marketing. We said this is the time to gain share. So we went very aggressive on marketing, both visibility, freshness, innovation, bringing in celebrities,” Chawla said.


On the outlook for the jewellery division, he said its so far so good, but volatility is here to stay.


“One good month does not mean the next month will be very good. Now that gold prices are fluctuating as opposed to only showing an upward trend, we will wait and watch. So far, it’s decent. It’s good. I am not unhappy about it,” he said.


Titan’s jewellery division is the largest contributor to the company. In FY25, revenue from operations of Titan — a JV between the Tata group and the Tamil Nadu government — was at Rs 57,339 crore, in which its jewellery division contributed Rs 46,571 crore — over 81 per cent.



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Macroeconomic data, global events to steer markets next week: Analysts

Macroeconomic data, global events to steer markets next week: Analysts



Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.


Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and domestic currency movements will also guide market movement during the week.


“In the near term, with tariffrelated concerns easing and the domestic earnings season drawing to a close on a mixed trend, market focus will hinge largely on global cues, including the US labour data and shifting expectations surrounding the US Fed’s policy path.


“However, the overall sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors monitor global AI-driven disruptions and geopolitical risks, while improved valuations and constructive GDP forecasts may help sustain FII inflows,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd, said.

 


With IT and metals facing persistent structural and external headwinds, market leadership may rotate toward domestically oriented sectors such as banking, autos, and select consumption-driven segments. However, broader indices are expected to remain range-bound until clearer macroeconomic and policy signals emerge, Nair said.


On a weekly basis, the 30-share BSE Sensex slumped 953.64 points, or 1.14 per cent, while the NSE Nifty dropped 222.6 points, or 0.86 per cent. Both indices closed the week on a negative note as a global selloff in technology stocks and concerns over artificial intelligence-led disruptions weighed on the sentiment.


“Markets will monitor WPI inflation and balance of trade data for signals on price trends and external sector dynamics. High-frequency indicators due include HSBC flash PMI readings for manufacturing, services, and composite, along with bank loan growth and foreign exchange reserves data.


“These releases will be evaluated for confirmation of growth momentum amid volatile global cues and continued repricing in technology stocks,” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.


In the previous week, the stock market was largely supported by favourable India-US trade deal development and renewed FII inflows that lifted overall risk appetite.


“Momentum extended on supportive global cues and rupee appreciation, although bouts of profit-booking emerged as Q3 earnings continued to deliver mixed signals. The sentiment turned cautious amid a global sell-off triggered by escalating concerns over AI-related disruptions, leading to sharp selling in IT stocks,” Nair said.


The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled 5 paise lower at 90.66 against the US dollar on Friday.


Geopolitical tensions also weighed on market breadth, causing the earlier optimism to fade and prompting a broad rise in sectoral volatility and widespread selling pressure.


Strong US jobs data further reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, pressuring global risk assets and contributing to the domestic market’s weakness, Mishra said.


Analysts said broader indices are likely to stay range-bound until clear macroeconomic and policy signals emerge. Investors will also watch the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be released on Thursday for cues on the US central bank’s monetary policy outlook.



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FPI inflows rebound to ₹19,675 cr in early Feb on India-US trade deal

FPI inflows rebound to ₹19,675 cr in early Feb on India-US trade deal



Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) staged a sharp turnaround in early February, pumping Rs 19,675 crore into Indian equities in the first fortnight, supported by the US-India trade deal and easing global macro concerns.


The inflows follow three consecutive months of heavy selling, with FPIs pulling out Rs 35,962 crore in January, Rs 22,611 crore in December, and Rs 3,765 crore in November, according to data from depositories.


Overall, in 2025, FPIs pulled out a net Rs 1.66 lakh crore (USD 18.9 billion) from Indian equities, marking one of the worst periods for foreign flows. The selling was driven by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, concerns over potential US tariffs and stretched equity valuations.

 


According to the data, FPIs invested Rs 19,675 crore in this month (till February 13).


Himanshu Srivastava, principal manager – research, at Morningstar Investment Research India, said the recent buying was supported by easing global macro concerns, particularly softer US inflation data, leading to a positive sentiment towards the interest rate cycle, which helped stabilise bond yields and the US dollar.


This improved risk appetite toward emerging markets, including India.


Domestically, steady macro indicators, stable inflation, and broadly in-line corporate earnings reinforced confidence in India’s growth outlook, he added.


Echoing similar views, Vaqarjaved Khan, senior fundamental analyst at Angel One, said the inflow was triggered by the US-India trade deal, the supportive Union Budget 2026 with fiscal stimulus, easing global trade uncertainties, and stable domestic rates.


FPIs were net buyers on seven of the eleven trading sessions in February up to the 13th, turning sellers on only four occasions. Despite this, data shows that FPIs have net sold equities worth Rs 1,374 crore so far this month.


The overall figure was skewed by a sharp sell-off of Rs 7,395 crore on February 13, when the Nifty declined by 336 points. The week also saw heavy selling in IT stocks amid the so-called “Anthropic shock”. It is likely that FPIs offloaded IT stocks aggressively in the cash market, as the IT index plunged 8.2 per cent during the week ended February 13, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.



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Mcap of 6 top valued firms erodes by ₹3 trn; TCS, Infosys biggest laggards

Mcap of 6 top valued firms erodes by ₹3 trn; TCS, Infosys biggest laggards



The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 valued firms eroded by more than Rs 3 trillion last week, with IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys emerging as the biggest laggards amid a bearish trend in equities.


The BSE benchmark declined by 953.64 points, or 1.14 per cent, over the past week.


TCS, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), and Bharti Airtel faced erosion from their valuation, while State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro and ICICI Bank were the gainers.


The market valuation of TCS tumbled Rs 90,198.92 crore to Rs 9,74,043.43 crore, while Infosys’ valuation eroded by Rs 70,780.23 crore to Rs 5,55,287.72 crore.

 


The market valuation of HDFC Bank declined by Rs 54,627.71 crore to Rs 13,93,621.92 crore, and that of Reliance Industries plunged by Rs 41,883 crore to Rs 19,21,475.79 crore.


Life Insurance Corporation of India’s market capitalisation (mcap) dropped by Rs 23,971.74 crore to Rs 5,46,226.80 crore, and that of Bharti Airtel declined by Rs 19,244.61 crore to Rs 11,43,044.03 crore.


However, the valuation of State Bank of India (SBI) jumped Rs 1,22,213.38 crore to Rs 11,06,566.44 crore.


The mcap of Bajaj Finance climbed Rs 26,414.44 crore to Rs 6,37,244.64 crore, and that of Larsen & Toubro’s valuation increased by Rs 14,483.9 crore to Rs 5,74,028.93 crore.


ICICI Bank’s mcap rose by Rs 5,719.95 crore to Rs 10,11,978.77 crore.


Reliance Industries remained the most valued firm, followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Infosys, and Life Insurance Corporation of India.



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RBI curbs loans extended to brokers in blow to proprietary trading volumes

RBI curbs loans extended to brokers in blow to proprietary trading volumes



By Chiranjivi Chakraborty

 


India’s central bank tightened rules for loans taken by firms that undertake proprietary trading in shares and commodities and offer leverage to clients, the latest measure aimed at reducing speculative market activity in the South Asian nation.

 


All credit facilities to securities firms will have to be backed by collateral, while lending for trading on their own account or investments by brokers will be prohibited, according to a statement published on the Reserve Bank of India’s website late Friday. The so-called prudential rules for capital market intermediaries such as stock and commodity brokers will come into effect from April 1, the central bank said. 

 
 

The stricter measures would raise the cost of raising capital by proprietary trading firms and squeeze profits. While Indian banks traditionally do not directly finance proprietary trading, the directive closes a loophole that allowed short-term working capital loans given by banks to be diverted for trading by brokers. 

 


Proprietary trading firms accounted for more than 50 per cent of equity options turnover on the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. — the country’s biggest stock bourse — last year, according to data. In cash equities trading, their share hit a 21-year high on the NSE at around 30 per cent.

 


The latest step comes just days after India sharply raised transaction tax on trading of single-stock and index derivatives in a bid to reduce speculative trading. Combined with the central bank’s new rules, market participants fear the rules will hurt volumes.

 


The RBI has also asked banks to demand that guarantees extended by them on behalf of a broker for proprietary trades to be fully secured, with 50 per cent of collateral being in cash and rest as cash equivalents and government securities. The new rule will narrow the type of securities trading firms can offer as collateral to banks.    

 


The central bank also tightened lending rules for margin trading facility under which stock brokers offer leverage to their clients. Loans given by banks for the product will have to be fully secured by cash and other liquid securities. Stocks offered as collateral by brokers will be considered at a 40 per cent valuation discount. 

 


Margin trading facility has grown rapidly into a more than ₹1 trillion ($11 billion) market for stock brokers, where clients can get leverage of upto five times their capital.



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China's stock bull run falters with corporate earnings set to underwhelm

China's stock bull run falters with corporate earnings set to underwhelm



A worsening earnings picture is darkening the outlook for Chinese equities, leaving investors wary that Lunar New Year holiday spending may not be enough to reignite a rally.

 


Corporate profit pre-announcements have shown a “major deterioration” for the last quarter of 2025, a Morgan Stanley analysis shows. The latest economic indicators underscore weak consumer demand as some government stimulus programs are scaled back, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. 

 


These factors are fueling concern the nine-day holiday will fail to deliver its typical boost to earnings as the economic uncertainty continues to erode consumer spending.

 

“Sentiment on Chinese stocks is going through a weak patch,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee in Singapore. That’s “partly because investors are unwilling to take risks before the long holidays, and also because of a lack of new catalysts, seemingly heightened regulatory scrutiny recently, and continued intense competition.” 

 

 


The MSCI China Index has risen just 0.8 per cent this year, while the MSCI All World Index has gained 2.8 per cent. The contrast is starker within Asia: South Korea’s key gauge has surged 31 per cent and Taiwan’s has jumped 16 per cent.

 


China’s earnings season is already shaping up as a disappointment. Fourth-quarter pre-announcements from more than 2,000 mainland-listed A-share companies show negative alerts outnumber positive ones by 14.8 per cent, versus a net negative 4.8 per cent in the second quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. Smaller firms fared worst — particularly in real estate and consumer-focused sectors — strategists including Chloe Liu and Laura Wang wrote in a note this month.

 


Slowing economic growth is a key drag on profits. China’s growth cooled to 4.5 per cent last quarter, from a year earlier, the weakest pace since the country reopened from Covid lockdowns in late 2022. Producer prices fell 1.4 per cent in January from a year ago, extending a deflationary streak that began in late 2022, while purchasing managers’ indexes signaled an unexpected slowdown.

 


“The significant miss in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs suggests insufficient underlying demand,” Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, said this month. “Consumption is facing clear headwinds from the scaled-back trade-in stimulus program this year.”

 


Economic data may take a back seat in the coming weeks as the statistics bureau typically combines January and February figures to smooth out distortions caused by the irregular timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. Major policy announcements are also unlikely before the National People’s Congress in March.

 


Increased regulatory intervention is adding to market caution. Authorities last month tightened margin financing rules in an effort to curb speculative trading and reduce the risk of future boom-and-bust cycles.

 


Diverging Growth


At the same time, earnings are diverging sharply across industries, complicating stock selection.

 


Metal miners are benefiting from surging prices, while companies in the artificial intelligence supply chain and firms supported by the government’s campaigns to rein in a price war are also gaining favor, according to a report from China Merchants Securities Co.

 


Miner CMOC Group Ltd. said last month its preliminary net income jumped about 50 per cent for the full year, while software maker Iflytek Co. reported a gain of between 40 per cent and 70 per cent for the same period. In contrast, shares of electric-vehicle makers BYD Co. and Great Wall Motor Co. both slumped following lackluster January sales numbers.

 


Overall A-share earnings are expected to have grown about 6.5 per cent year-on-year for 2025, compared with a drop of 3 per cent for 2024, according to China International Capital Corp. China Merchants Securities also predicts single-digit growth.

 


The profit increase is “largely attributable to policy support and cyclical factors, rather than signaling a fundamental or structural shift in market conditions,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co.

 



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