Crude oil prices extended the downtrend over the last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($80.60/barrel) and crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹7,262/barrel) slipped 7.7 per cent and 8.9 per cent respectively. Future contracts breached some key levels and hit three-month low, indicating strong downward momentum. Here is an analysis.
Brent futures ($80.60)
Brent crude oil futures invalidated an important support at $86 early last week. It dropped further to mark an intra-week low of $76.54 on Thursday before recovering to $80.60.
While the trend is bearish, there is a chance for the contract to witness a corrective rise from the current level. Such a move can take the contract back to $86 or even to $90-92 resistance band, where the 21-day moving average now lies.
However, post this move, Brent crude futures can resume to fall, eventually declining to $73. Support below $73 is at $70. In case the contract breaks out of $92, it can rally further to $98. But as it stands, the bias is bearish.
MCX-Crude oil (₹7,262)
Crude oil futures (Jul) opened last week with a gap-down and fell to make a weekly low of ₹6,897 on Thursday. On Friday, it recouped some of its losses and ended at ₹7,262.
The chart shows that the support at ₹7,000 helped the bulls in putting up a fight. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bearish, although there could be a temporary uptick in price.
From the current level, crude oil futures might move up to ₹8,000-8,200 price band. But then, this rise can draw fresh selling, eventually leading to another downswing. That fall can drag the contract to ₹6,000.
That said, in case crude oil futures breaks out of ₹8,200, it can turn the outlook positive. Notable resistance above ₹8,200 is at ₹9,000.
Trade strategy: Stay out for now. Initiate fresh short position if crude oil futures (Jul) rises to ₹7,900. Place stop-loss at ₹8,300. When the price drops below ₹7,000, tighten the stop-loss to ₹7,500. Exit the trade at ₹6,500.
Published on June 20, 2026
