Kpler said the recent exchange of fire in West Asia following President Donald Trump’s comments on ceasefire has once again raised concerns over the security of the SoH
The rollback of the 60-day sanctions reprieve for Iran is unlikely to impact India’s crude oil imports in August and September, with Russia, the US, West Africa and South America already providing alternatives to the lost barrels from the Gulf. However, trade sources and refiners indicated that liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) could again become a pain point if renewed hostilities continue for long, which would extend the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), impacting supplies of the key cooking medium for more than 33.50 crore Indian households.
‘Cautious review on’
“Refiners are cautiously reviewing the situation and awaiting clarity from the Foreign Ministry. Crude oil imports from Iran will get stuck after the US pulled back the sanctions waiver. We will see more dark tanker activity. Besides, the plan [import from Iran] is more of long term,” said an executive with a domestic refiner.
Kpler said the recent exchange of fire in West Asia following President Donald Trump’s comments on a ceasefire has once again raised concerns over the security of the SoH.
“Crude flows through the Strait had not fully recovered before the latest escalation. For India, however, it has largely been business as usual over the past 100 days, with refiners successfully managing supply through a diversified import portfolio,” the global real time data and analytics provider added.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline: “Where I believe the market should pay closer attention is LPG and LNG. Unlike crude, these markets have fewer short-term substitution options, and remain more exposed to Gulf supply and shipping disruptions. A prolonged period of instability could tighten availability, increase freight costs, and add pressure to regional prices again as we have seen over last few months.”
He emphasised that India’s crude import basket today is far more resilient than it was a few years ago. For instance, Russian crude continues to anchor a significant share of imports, while barrels from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are delivered via bypass infrastructure that provides an additional layer of supply security.
“West African and Latin American grades continue to supplement refinery requirements. Cargoes that can safely transit the SoH are still expected to move, although freight rates and insurance costs could rise if tensions persist.
For now, Ritolia explained that India’s crude supply story remains one of diversification and resilience, not immediate scarcity. The key variables to watch are how long regional tensions persist, the impact on shipping and insurance costs and whether LPG and LNG markets begin to experience more meaningful disruptions.
Published on July 9, 2026
