The global weather this year is expected to be El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral during the monsoon period
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THULASI KAKKAT
The south-west monsoon is “most likely” to be above normal this year during June-September, said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
“The seasonal average rainfall, quantitatively, is expected to be 105 per cent of the long-period average, with a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent,” he told the annual press conference on the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Forecast for the south-west monsoon this year.
The rainfall will exceed the normal 87 cm seasonal average, he said. However, Ladakh, the North-East and Tamil Nadu are expected to receive below-average rainfall.
The global weather this year is expected to be El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral during the monsoon period. The Indian Ocean Dipole is also likely to stay neutral, Ravichandran said.
Probabilities
Leading private weather forecaster Skymet last week predicted that the country would have a normal monsoon in the upcoming season at 103 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of +/-5 per cent
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of IMD, said there is a 26 per cent possibility of excess rainfall and a 33 per cent per cent chance of above-normal rainfall. A two per cent likelihood of deficient rainfall effectively rules out the possibility of a deficient monsoon . The probability of a normal rainfall is 30 per cent.
Published on April 15, 2025
