As India Inc. gets ready to unveil its operational and financial performance for the April – June 2026 quarter (Q1-FY27), the markets, analysts suggest, have mostly discounted a subdued performance during the recently concluded quarter in the backdrop of West Asia war.
Some sectors, such as oil & gas, they suggest, will be impacted more as a consequence of the geopolitical conflict in West Asia.
Here’s what leading brokerages expect from India Inc. in Q1-FY27 and a deep dive into expectations across companies in the frontline sectors.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services
We expect earnings for the MOFSL Universe (379 companies) to dip 3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) – the lowest growth since September 2020 quarter. Barring global commodities (Metals and Oil & Gas sectors), the MOFSL Universe and Nifty are likely to report 11 per cent and 6 per cent YoY earnings growth, respectively.
The overall earnings growth will be anchored by Financials – led by NBFC-Lending (+27 per cent YoY) and both Private Banks (+10 per cent YoY) & PSU Banks (+9 per cent YoY). CLICK HERE FOR A DETAILED GRAPHIC
In contrast, the Oil & Gas sector is expected to report a 94 per cent YoY decline in profit, led by oil marketing companies (OMCs), which are expected to post a (cumulative) loss of around Rs 36,400 crore, dragging down the Q1-FY27 MOFSL aggregate earnings. Further, Automobile (-3 per cent), Healthcare (-3 per cent), and Cement (-13 per cent) are anticipated to hurt earnings moderately.
Nuvama: Automobiles
Aggregate revenue for our coverage (ex-Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles) is likely to surge 22 per cent YoY, led by robust underlying industry growth and improved pricing. However, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) growth is likely to lag at 10 per cent YoY, primarily due to input cost pressures post-West Asia conflict.
For the passenger vehicle segment as a whole, revenue growth shall be supported by improved realisations on richer product mix and electrification. We expect TMPV’s India business to post a 56 per cent surge, followed by MSIL (37 per cent), M&M-auto segment (20 per cent), while Hyundai is likely to report a 2 per cent dip.
JM Financial: Banks
We expect banks to report a healthy quarter with around 14 per cent YoY PAT growth, supported by healthy business growth and stable asset quality, although earnings will continue to face pressure from net interest margin (NIM) compression.
Provisional business updates for 28 banks indicate strong loan growth of nearly 16.4 per cent YoY, while deposit growth of around 12.3 per cent YoY continues to trail advances.
Overall, earnings should remain supported by robust business momentum and benign credit costs despite near-term pressure on margins. Trends in deposit cost, LCR, FCNR-B deposit mobilisation, ECLGS 5.0 and any residual stress in SME/unsecured loans due to the recent West Asia crisis would be the key metrics to monitor. Preferred picks remain ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, SBI, Ujjivan SFB, DCB Bank and City Union Bank.
JP Morgan: Consumer Discretionary
Q1-FY27 is likely to be broadly constructive, with revenue growth momentum supported by a combination of pricing tailwinds, seasonal demand, and an expanding retail footprint.
Jewellery retailers look poised to deliver healthy growth, led by product innovation across price points and continuity of attractive gold exchange programs despite some moderation due to lower wedding dates. In paints and adhesives, industry-wide price hikes should accelerate revenue growth, with margins supported by operating leverage, some impact of low-cost inventory, backward integration and cost efficiencies.
Retail companies are likely to maintain a resilient growth trajectory, benefiting from strong value propositions and retail network expansion. Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) companies are inching up on value offerings and steady store adds, though a broad-based demand recovery remains elusive.
In consumer durables, a prolonged summer season and broad-based price hikes across product categories are likely to drive healthy revenue growth. Our preferred picks in the space are Titan Company, Pidilite and LG Electronics.
Elara Capital: Cement
We expect EBITDA/tonne of our cement coverage universe (15 companies) to remain broadly stable in Q1FY27, as the price hikes implemented at the start of Q1FY27 should largely offset the ~5% YoY increase in operating costs driven by higher raw material and fuel prices.
Overall, we expect EBITDA/tonne to decline ~8% YoY (flat QoQ). In terms of QoQ EBITDA/tonne performance, South-based firms such as The Ramco Cements is expected to witness a steeper decline than peers due to weaker pricing in southern markets and persistent cost inflation. Ambuja Cement may outperform the industry due to normalization of cost from a higher base.
Morgan Stanley: Information Technology
We expect Infosys to tighten its guidance band to 2 per cent-3.5 per cent, including 1ppt from inorganic activity (like-for-like guidance to be 1 per cent-2.5 per cent vs. 1.5 per cent-3.5 per cent previously). HCLT’s guidance band is likely to stay at 1-4 per cent, although we believe growth could drift closer to ~2 per cent.
Wipro may provide Q2-F27 revenue growth guidance of -1 per cent to +1 per cent. We expect the margin outlook to stay similar but see chances for actual performance between the midpoint and lower end. Within mid-caps, we see MphasiS and Coforge holding onto their F27 outlook.
Elara Capital: Telecom
Telecom companies are likely to report a steady Q1FY27, supported by stable subscriber base and double-digit YoY growth in broadband subscriber additions. With limited clarity on tariff hike in the short term, premiumization will remain the primary average revenue per user (ARPU) growth driver. We expect double-digit top-line growth and EBITDA growth for Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Jio (Not Listed), while Bharat Hexacom and Indus Tower are set to deliver mid-single digit, top-line growth.
