Trent
CITI: Sell, TP Rs 4100. Revenue +20% YoY beat est by 2%, EBITDA/PAT +40%/30% beat by 12%/23%. EBITDA beat GM-led: +171bps YoY to 44.3% vs Citi 42.5%. GM likely benefited from inventory provisioning reversal. Strong opex control: employee/rent per sq ft -19%/-11% YoY. Board approved Rs25bn equity raise for store upgrades, new formats, supply chain, select retail real estate for Star.
Bernstein: O-P, TP Rs 5000. Back on track with growth + margin beat. Rights issue doesn’t excite. Qtr delivered 20% growth + margin expansion. Medium term: expect 20% growth, stable 11% Operating EBIT margin. Near term watch: macro headwinds — input cost inflation, supply disruptions, demand uncertainty. Need more details on rights issue usage.
HSBC: Buy, TP Rs 4830. EBITDA beat consensus by 15% driven by higher gross margins. LFL was low-single digits for fashion concepts. Rs25bn fund raise announced; await granularity. Star business expansion monitorable. Key downside risk: store productivity hit from competition driving multiple compression.
Jefferies: Hold, TP Rs 4675. Strong 4Q on store expansion, esp Zudio, and improving LFL. Op leverage + self-help drove ∼40% YoY Op EBITDA growth, well ahead of est. Mgmt cautious on near-term demand due to geopolitical uncertainty, may feed into higher costs. Focus on densifying key markets + smaller cities expansion.
Morgan Stanley: Overweight, TP ₹4835. Q4: Margin Beat. Consumer sentiment stable, discretionary spending moderated on macro uncertainties. Saw early raw material inflation + supplier labour tightness, mitigated via calibrated sourcing. Strategy intact to drive share in proximate markets.
Tech Mahindra
CITI: Sell, TP Rs 1275. Inline 4Q EBIT vs est. Subcontractor expenses +17% QoQ, 12% of revenue vs 10.7% QoQ. OCF/EBITDA TTM 68% vs 83% YoY. Commentary: Accelerating AI-led transition; on track for FY27 commitments — above peer avg growth & 15% EBIT margins. Deal TCV net new +41% YoY TTM. IT headcount -6.5% YoY; utilization near highs. Valuations 19.2x FY27E EPS vs HCLT 17.6x, TCS 16.3x, Infosys 16.5x price in positives.
HSBC: Buy, TP Rs 1780. Good quarter, reiterated FY27 targets: 15% EBIT margin + above-peer revenue growth. Telecom strong vertical, driven by European telco market share gains. Expect higher medium-long term earnings growth vs larger peers.
Jefferies: U-P, TP Rs 1225. Revenues/margins in line, profits missed on Fx losses. Raise EPS 2-3% on INR depreciation. Strong deal wins, improving comms vertical outlook + margins support 3.6%/13% CAGRs in cc revenues/EPS over FY26-29. 16% premium to Infosys limits upsides.
SBI Life
Jefferies: Buy, TP Rs 2550. Q4 VNB 4%/6% below FactSet/JEFe on lower margin. Still expect: (i) positive surprise to FY27e VNB margin guidance 27-28%, JEFe 28.3%, (ii) APE momentum in SBI to sustain in FY27, JEFe 12%. Translates to 17% FY27e VNB growth vs 14% for HDFCL/IPRU. See limited risk of open architecture in SBI; SBI Life better navigating commission regs due to lower costs.Nomura: Buy, TP Rs 2440. Tough year, but managed well. Aims 14% YoY APE growth near term. Healthy delivery on operating variance — far ahead of peers; best-in-class ROEVs. No communication on “open architecture” for parent bank. Stable performance through disrupted times deserves premium valuation.
HSBC: Buy, TP Rs 2270. 4QFY26: margin impact due to APE growth slowdown / GST reforms. Non-SBIN channel growth encouraging. Investments in new non-linked products + channels should deliver higher than industry APE growth. STK offers ∼18% CAGR in EV FY26-29e.
Morgan Stanley: Overweight, TP ₹2340, Earlier ₹2375. FY26 EV operating profit beat est by 6% on materially positive operating variance. FY26 EV beat by 0.2%. VNB missed by 5% on lower group protection APE and lower VNB margin. FY27 guidance: APE growth 14%, VNB margin 27-28%. With solid ROEV, better persistency + positioning on commission payouts, risk/reward strong.
MOSL: Buy, TP Rs 2350. In-line performance; VNB margin within guided range. Mgmt confident of sustaining 14% APE growth. With improving product mix & GST impact baked in, VNB margins expected 27-28%. Continued shift toward non-ULIP products.
Havells
CLSA: O-P, TP Rs 1535. Weak 4Q, Ebitda -6% YoY, below est. Revenue +2% YoY. Cables & wires + renewables solar positive surprise. Unseasonal rains, slow summer start, pre-buying hit cooling products. Low base + harsher summer augur well for 1Q27 growth. Consensus upgrades key to rerating.
HSBC: Buy, TP cut to Rs 1560. Q4 unimpressive: net revenue +2% YoY. Lloyd revenue -19% YoY. C&W and solar good — strong revenue growth + contribution margins. Cut estimates, mainly ECD and Lloyd segment.
Nomura: Buy, TP Rs 1620. 4QFY26 ahead; consumption recovery key catalyst. Normal summer to drive growth recovery; margin improvement gradual amid cost pressures. Cut revenue 4%, EBITDA margins by 60/10bp to 10.7%/11.4%, leading to 11%/6% EPS cuts.
Macquarie: Outperform, TP ₹1588. Good quarter; macro outlook lends demand risk. Margin surprises, macro uncertainty poses growth headwind. Cables continue to lead growth. Like diversified mix, strong brand, premium positioning. Near term: growth/margin risk led by macro uncertainty due to Middle East conflict.
Jefferies: Hold, TP ₹1290. Cables the bright spot; higher other income. Sales traction in Cables offset consumer products decline. Lloyd posted EBIT loss for 4th quarter. Est FY26-28e EPS at 20% CAGR; valuations 5% above 10-year avg.
Citi: Neutral, TP ₹1500, Earlier ₹1600. More misses than hits. Revenue growth disappointed across segments. Rising competitive intensity from new entrants in Cables and Wires likely to keep margins under pressure. Growth + margin improvement key for re-rating.
MOSL: Neutral, TP Rs 1349. Strong C&W momentum; ECD and Lloyd subdued. Mgmt: inventory gains + year-end adjustments supported strong margin recovery in C&W and Lighting. Industrial/infra-linked segments strong; consumer-facing subdued on cost pressures. Demand for cooling products recently picked up, optimistic on summer demand revival. Refrained from growth guidance due to evolving macro. Focus: efficiency, brand building, innovation, distribution expansion.
L&T Technology Services
JPM: Neutral, TP Rs 3600. Starting FY27 on clean slate post SWC business sale + exiting low-margin Hitech projects, $19mn annual rev headwind. Expects 1Q growth across all 3 verticals on deal rampups. Sustainability to continue growth; Auto growth returning as 40% of 4Q large deals here. Exit from low-margin biz should accelerate margin expansion. Brought forward guidance: 16.5% margins on or before 4QFY27 vs earlier 4QFY27-1QFY28. Increase EPS 2-3% on margin benefits from SWC sale + FX tailwinds.
ICICI Securities: Hold, TP ₹3380, Earlier ₹3550. Robust post-clean-up outlook; automotive sees stability. Portfolio rationalisation dims performance. Cut FY27-28E EPS 5-6% on weaker hi-tech growth. FY27 revenue growth likely mid-single-digits amid strategic pivot, leadership changes, macro uncertainty.
Nomura: Neutral, TP ₹3510, Earlier ₹3300. Starting on clean slate in FY27; restructuring complete. Deal wins strong, pipeline robust. Project Lakshya: aspires 13-15% revenue CAGR, EBIT margins ~mid-16%. Aspiration may include tuck-in acquisitions, could dilute margins.
JPMorgan: Neutral, TP ₹3600, Earlier ₹3500. Starting on clean slate. Expects Sustainability growth momentum; Auto growth returning. Exit from low-margin businesses should accelerate margin expansion. Wait to see positive proof points of new strategy.
Tata Communications
CLSA: O-P, TP Rs 2280. Q4 consol revenue Rs65.5bn, +9% YoY/+6% QoQ, above est. Data revenue +12% YoY/+6% QoQ, 87% of consol revenue, driven by digital portfolio 51% share, +19% YoY/+9% QoQ. Consol Ebitda Rs12.8bn, +14% YoY/+5% QoQ. New CEO commentary robust; largely retain forecasts offering 15% consol Ebitda CAGR by FY29CL.
Macquarie: Outperform, TP ₹2210. March-Q: Better growth, margins mixed. Q4 earnings below driven by lower data services profitability + higher tax. Tata Comm is a Marquee Buy Idea. See path for shares to double over 3 years in bull case.
IndiGo
Morgan Stanley: Overweight, TP ₹5913, Earlier ₹6498. Near-term turbulence, intact structural resilience. India airlines face headwinds: sharp oil price rise, weaker demand, currency depreciation. Building weak H1FY27 followed by gradual H2FY27 recovery. FY28 EV/EBITDA seen at ∼8x vs 10Y median ∼9x. Strong cost moats + balance sheet keep us overweight.
Dixon Tech
UBS: Buy, TP cut to Rs 13800. Near-term headwinds but priced in; well positioned long term. Higher smartphone prices to drag FY27E organic volumes; recovery FY28E. FY27E margins could see impact as backward integration ramps FY28E. Key risks: further delays in PN3 approvals for Vivo JV ∼20% of FY28E EPS, or worsening memory chip shortage.Sector / Strategy
BofA India Strategy: Reiterating cautiousness on valuation-led rally. Capital goods stocks near upcycle valuations despite mid-cycle earnings growth. Could correct meaningfully on broader market sell-off. Reiterate non-consensus cautious view on capital goods. Est +10% capex CAGR FY26-28 vs consensus +15%. Street underestimating Iran conflict fallout on private/central/state capex. Slowing capex cycle — multiple downside risks ahead. Given stretched valuations + earnings risks, remain cautious with 5 of 6 Industrials rated Underperform. See select opportunities: Power (Transformers, Wires & Cables), Data Centers (Gensets), Shipbuilding, Defence.
