Morgan Stanley on Maruti Suzuki (Tactical buy)
Maintain Overweight; target price ₹17,895
Positive tactical view (next 30 days); expects near-term outperformance
Stock corrected ~20% in 6 months vs Nifty down ~8%
Correction driven by margin concerns and West Asia demand worries
FY27 domestic volume growth guided at ~10%, ~200 bps ahead of estimates
Margins likely to bottom out in Q1FY27, followed by recovery
Operating leverage, lower discounts and richer mix to support margins
Valuation below long-term averages
70–80% probability assigned to positive scenario
Goldman Sachs on Maruti Suzuki
Maintain Buy, Target price ₹15,800
Q4 broadly in line with expectations
Domestic volume growth guidance at 10% for FY27
Channel inventory lean at ~12 days
Capacity addition of 500k units planned in FY27
Price hike optionality remains key monitorable
Exports outlook balanced despite Middle East logistics issues
Potential price hikes could materially aid EPS growth
Demand momentum remains healthy despite geopolitical concerns
High-demand models continue facing supply constraints
Motilal Oswal on Maruti Suzuki
Maintain Buy with a target price of ₹15,529 (vs ₹15,392)
Demand outlook remains upbeat
Healthy demand to offset cost headwinds, with minimal margin pressure
GST rate cuts aiding small car demand, improving affordability
~10% domestic volume growth expected in FY27, supported by strong order backlog and launches
Expect ~16% earnings CAGR over FY26–28
HSBC on Maruti
Buy, TP Rs 15000
MSIl reported an in-line 4Q and has managed commodity inflation well so far
Volume growth guidance of 10% was positive and underscores the resilient demand environment
Valuations at 20x FY28e EPS look undemanding; MSIL is also a key beneficiary of 8th Pay commission
Jefferies on Maruti
Hold, TP Rs 13800
MSIL’s Mar-Q EBIT grew 30% YoY (inline with JEFe), but PAT fell 3% YoY (15% miss) on lower financial income.
PV demand is holding up well and MSIL expects its domestic volumes to grow 10% in FY27 (JEFe: 7%).
MSIL’s market share, however, has slipped to a 13-year low amid demand shift towards SUVs, which is a concern.
Post recent fall, stock is at 24x FY27E PE vs last 10-yr average of 26x
Cut FY27-28E EPS by 9%;
UBS on Maruti
Neutral, TP cut to Rs 13970
Revenue surge fails to lift margins
Q4FY26: RM impact partially neutralised by lower discounts and other exp.
1) Management expects its domestic volumes to grow at 10% for FY27;
2) First time buyer ratio is currently at 51% (v/s. 42% in 1HFY26);
3) After having 30%+ export growth in FY26, the outlook remains contingent on end-market demand now given the ongoing conflict;
4) Full year FY27 capex guidance upped at Rs14bn in light of the capacity expansion plans;
5) The dealer inventory levels are currently ~12 days;
6) The company is on track to launch 7 SUVs by FY30, though launch timelines may be lumpy.
CLSA on Eternal
High Conviction O-P, TP Rs 505
Blinkit’s NOV rose 95% YoY, in line with est.
Contribution margin was flat QoQ despite 4% lower AOV, largely seasonal.
Orders grew 93.3% YoY, 4% ahead of estimate with lower CAC leading to 98.5% MTU growth
Confidence on Blinkit’s business model is strengthened due to robust growth/profitability despite heightened competitive intensity.
Acceleration in food delivery NOV continued as Zomato continues to expand MTUs by improving affordability
Jefferies on Eternal
Buy, TP cut to Rs 400
Despite high competitive intensity, Eternal reported further improvement in Q/C profitability, which is commendable
Growth was modest, partly reflecting seasonality, but mgmt has guided for c60% CAGR over 3Y, retaining 5-6% EBITDA margin.
Food delivery saw no impact from gas shortages and delivered a strong NOV, with an equally positive outlook.
Notably, management has also guided for US$1bn consol EBITDA by FY29E and views AI as an enabler
GS on Eternal
Buy, TP Rs 340
Q4 indicate Blinkit’s underlying NOV growth is closer to mid-teens qoq, rather than high-single digits, and quick commerce margins can expand despite elevated competition.
Additionally, food delivery growth continues to accelerate; see these as positive near-term drivers of stock price
Expect Blinkit’s June ‘27 NOV growth to accelerate to 15% qoq (80% YoY), driven by better AOV, higher number of days, & positive impact from summer quarter; forecast EBITDA margin to further improve to +0.6% of NOV.
In food delivery, expect 19% YoY NOV growth in 1QFY27, with 20 bps qoq EBITDA margin expansion due to recent increase in platform fee.
HSBC on Eternal
Buy, TP Rs 300
4Q was a tad below expectations, though medium-term growth guidance was significantly positive vs estimates
Blinkit seems unperturbed by near-term competition & expects meaningful pick-up in growth in QC in 1QFY27
See long-term value in Eternal (USD1.1bn EBITDA in FY30), though near-term volatility may persist
Macquarie on Eternal
U-P, TP Rs 200
Sequential growth moderation; optimistic guide
Zomato – Food Delivery. NOVg at 19% Y-o-Y and adj EBITDA margin at 5.5% was in-line with VA consensus
District – Going Out. 6% Q-o-Q NOV growth and -3% adj EBITDA margin.
Guidance of US$150mn adj EBITDA by FY30 maintained.
Incred on Eternal
ADD, TP Rs 383
Aiming at 20% yoy & 60% CAGR in FD and QC businesses.
Expects to reach adjusted EBITDA of US$1bn by FY29F
Rternal’s leadership in its segments and control over unit economics supports our view
Rising competitive intensity is a key downside risk to our estimates and valuation
DAM Cap on Eternal
Buy, TP Rs 330
In-line operations; strong QC growth guidance
built in 44% CAGR (NOV) growth over FY26-29E
This will be led by 18% CAGR in FD and 59% CAGR in QC business.
Blinkit has already become Adj EBITDA profitable.
Going forward should observe exponential growth in profitability till the time business reaches to a stable EBITDA margin of 4-5%.
Competitive intensity remains a key risk
Food margins should remain range bound; value Blinkit on EV/EBITDA on FY28 at 70x, while FD business is valued at 30x
CLSA on Bandhan BK
O-P, TP raised to Rs 220
2nd good quarter for Bandhan Bank after several tough quarters since mid-2024.
4QFY26 PAT was 26% above estimate, driven by stronger fees and lower credit costs, partly offset by higher opex
Bank hit a 1% ROA after six quarters.
AUM growth picked up to 13% YoY, aided by a pickup in MFI growth.
Reported NIM improved 30bp QoQ to 6.2%, driven largely by term deposit repricing.
But, most importantly, asset quality improved meaningfully
Net slippage ratio improved 100bp QoQ to 1.9% and was half of the 2QFY26 level; this drove the sharp credit cost beat
Going ahead, management targets 14-15% loan growth with a largely stable loan mix.
It also expects another 10-20bp NIM improvement and a pickup in fees.
Jefferies on Bandhan Bk
Buy, TP Rs 215
For Mar-Qtr, Bandhan Bank’s profit of Rs5bn (up 68% YoY) beat estimates with lower credit costs & higher fees.
Stability in MFI sector & trends in election-bound states are supporting credit quality.
This, along with scope for expansion in NIM should aid turnaround in earnings over FY27-28
Tweak est. to factor 4Q results & are tad conservative vs mtg guidance given volatility in this sector
UBS on Bandhan BK
Neutral, TP raised to Rs 200
Q4 PAT beat: Strong beat on credit costs; partly offset by higher Opex
MFI book grows at c7.5% QoQ; CASA ratio up c200bp
Management aim for a FY27 exit ROA of 1.6% – 1.8%
Believe stock’s current valuation prices in a large part of asset quality improvement & see limited upside from current levels (c1x FY27E P/BV, stock up 24% YTD)
Macquarie on Bandhan BK
U-P, TP Rs 130
PAT beats estimates driven by lower credit costs
Slippages moderate, loan growth picks up pace
Lower borrowing costs support NIM expansion
Management guidance remains ambitious, targeting 14– 15% loan growth & 1.6–1.8% RoA by 4QFY27, supported by 10–20bps NIM expansion (from deposit repricing), fee income traction & lower PSLC costs.
4Q stood out for Bandhan in an otherwise weak year, but believe consistent performance is needed for a possible re-rating
JPM on Bandhan BK
Neutral, TP raised to Rs 157
4QFY26: Core performance misses, AQ improvement supporting RoA expansion, sustainability key
While Bandhan’s strategic pivot is underway, & guidance for 1.6-1.7% of RoA by FY27 exit (vs 1.1% in 4QFY26, reported) is positive, trend has been very volatile historically
Await more visibility on sustainability of ongoing recovery, especially in light of ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
Current valuations at 1.03x FY27 P/BV appear fair & cap any significant upside
Raise forecasts for FY27/28E by 17%/2% resp.
Elara Capital on Bandhan Bank
Maintain Buy, Target price ₹220 (vs ₹186 earlier)
Strong Q4 with PAT up over 65% YoY
NII growth at 4% QoQ supported by better NIMs
Controlled slippages with improvement in MFI portfolio
SMA-0 improved though SMA-1 and SMA-2 remain monitorables
Loan growth improving with secured mix at ~56%
NIM up 10 bps QoQ to 6.12%
Industry MFI trends indicate possible inflection point
Better predictability driving rerating potential
Elections in key states remain monitorable for collections
HSBC on Dalmia Bharat
Buy, TP Rs 2490
Better cost control drives profit beat in 4Q despite lower volumes; April price hikes cover 1Q cost inflation of INR125-150/t
Management’s focus on profitable growth, higher utilization and RoCE improvement is a positive
Valuation (11.6x EV/EBITDA) & regional exposure (South, East) are key positives
CLSA on Dalmia Bharat
O-P, TP Rs 2240
Delivered a mixed quarter, with Ebitda of Rs9bn (+14% YoY) marginally ahead of consensus but in line with estimate, aided by lower costs.
However, volume grew just 4%, lagging industry growth of 6%–7%.
Management reiterated confidence in outgrowing the industry over FY27–28, driven by a demand recovery and operational normalisation.
April price hikes should partly offset near-term cost inflation, though rising petcoke, packaging and logistics costs (Rs125–150/t impact) could weigh margins
Morgan Stanley on Dalmia Bharat
Maintain Underweight, Target price ₹2,015
EBITDA/t beat estimates at ₹1,025/t
Volumes weaker than expected due to asset breakdown
West Asia crisis could drive ₹125–150/t cost inflation in Q1FY27
Power and fuel costs better than estimates
PAT broadly in line with expectations
Net debt/EBITDA improved to 0.46x
75mnt capacity target for FY28 reiterated
Roadmap to capacity expansion yet to be disclosed
Overhangs remain despite operational beat
Goldman Sachs on Dalmia Bharat
Maintain Neutral, Target price ₹2,090 (vs ₹2,120 earlier)
Q4 volumes impacted by kiln shutdown in Odisha
Volume growth would have been ~6% YoY adjusted for outage
EBITDA/t improved to ₹1,025/t
Cost control and better realizations aided profitability
Pricing improved in key regions during April
Management expects ₹120–150/t cost inflation in Q1FY27
Competition intensity rising in South and East India
Near-term growth may outperform industry on favorable base
Bernstein on Sapphire Foods
Maintain Neutral; target price ₹240
Q4FY26 revenue grew ~11% YoY to ₹7.9bn; FY26 revenue at ₹31bn
Store additions strong, with 24 in Q4 and 89 in FY26
EBITDA margin at ~7.7%; adjusted PBT margin improved to ~1.1%
KFC India growth strong (~15% YoY); SSSG improved to ~4%
Pizza Hut India weak, with SSSG at –7% and negative margins
Sri Lanka business saw healthy SSSG, though margins impacted by fuel costs
Merger-related decisions remain key, with limited near-term triggers
Goldman Sachs on Sapphire Foods
Not Rated
KFC SSSG at +4% YoY, ahead of estimates
Adjusted for Navratri shift, SSSG at +6% YoY
Demand momentum sustained into April
Value initiatives driving traffic growth across regions
KFC EBITDA growth at 23% YoY
Price hikes of ~1.5–2% taken in March/April
Pizza Hut trends still weak but better than estimates
Sri Lanka business continues strong double-digit growth
FY27/FY28 sales estimates raised driven by KFC recovery
Elara Capital on Jindal Saw
Downgrade to Accumulate from BUY
Target price ₹280 (unchanged)
Q4 impacted by MENA export disruptions and logistics issues
Standalone volumes down 11% YoY
Order book remains healthy at ~1.9mn tonnes
Provides ~17 months revenue visibility
Middle East expansion projects progressing on schedule
Near-term earnings impacted by logistical constraints
YoY earnings growth expected from Q2FY27 onwards
Strong medium-term outlook supported by capex revival
Stock up ~17% since initiation leading to downgrade
Morgan Stanley on Go Digit General Insurance
Maintain Equal-weight, Target price ₹328
IndAS profit growth strong despite softer IGAAP print
IGAAP PBT missed estimates as combined ratio worsened
Underlying IndAS profit growth at 69% YoY
Economic combined ratio rose to 111.7%
Motor competition showing early signs of easing
GWP growth at 6% YoY lagged industry growth
Management maintaining profit-focused approach
Valuations seen as full despite improving ROE trajectory
Awaiting better entry point
Morgan Stanley on Leela Palaces Hotels & Resorts
Maintain Overweight, Target price ₹579
RevPAR grew 6% YoY in Q4
ARR growth at 15% offset by lower occupancy
Middle East conflict impacted international travel demand
Domestic business remained resilient
April trends improving with better ARR trajectory
Management expects double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in Q1FY27
Growth supported by owned portfolio and new properties
Balance sheet remains strong with net debt/EBITDA at 1.6x
Dubai refurbishment timelines unchanged despite conflict
Morgan Stanley on Ashok Leyland (Tactical sell)
Maintain Equal-weight; target price ₹180
Negative tactical view (next 30 days); expects near-term underperformance
Stock up ~20% in 6 months vs Nifty down ~8%, indicating recent rerating
CV volume growth healthy in 1HFY27, but expected to taper from 2HFY27
Rising commodity costs likely to pressure margins
Valuation less compelling at ~13x FY27 EV/EBITDA (ex-HLF)
70–80% probability assigned to negative scenario
Morgan Stanley on REC
Maintain Overweight, Target price ₹455
Weak quarter with PAT down 21% YoY
PAT missed estimates by 17–22%
Higher provisioning and weaker PPOP impacted earnings
NIM at 3.55%, below estimates
AUM growth muted at 3% YoY
Disbursements down 9% QoQ
Higher Stage 1 coverage drove elevated provisioning
Asset quality underlying trends remain healthy
Valuation attractive at ~6x FY27 P/E and ~1x P/BV
Jefferies on Emmvee Photo
Buy, TP Rs 350
Emmvee reported a beat with Ebitda/PAT 13%/17% ahead of JEFe.
Order book was flat q/q with strong visibility of revenue/Ebitda over FY27-1HFY28.
Though working capital expanded, balance sheet is net-debt free as co begins expansion capex
Raised FY27E Ebitda 4% and project 26% Ebitda Cagr over FY26-28E.
Power demand recovery in FY27 should aid renewables
Find valuation attractive at 35% discount to peers.
Nomura on Indus Tower
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 490
Structural data growth; Vi’s positive outlook key
Vi’s stabilization unlocks tenancy growth; valuation gap vs global peers to narrow
Dividend resumption could be a key re-rating trigger
Est. a total dividend payout of Rs19/sh by Indus in FY26F, implying a dividend yield of 4.7% at CMP
Jefferies India Strategy
Following substantial equity selling of $56 billion in CY24–25 amid elevated valuations
Promoter buying of $4 billion+ in CY26 TD represents a noteworthy shift
While still selective, these actions appear to coincide with valuation normalisation
Buying is generally concentrated in asset-heavy sectors, viz. power, infrastructure, and property
Key companies include Adani Enterprises, GMR, JSW Energy, Godrej Properties, AESL, Lodha, Grasim, Jindal Stainless, Maruti, and Indus Towers
