The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite indices continue to get beaten down. All the three indices were down for the fourth consecutive week. They were down about 2 per cent each last week. The Dow Jones, down about 6 per cent, has tumbled the most in the last four weeks.
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield has surged for the third consecutive week. But surprisingly, this has not aided the dollar index to move higher. Indeed, the dollar index fell about a per cent last week.
How low can the US benchmark indices fall from here? Will the dollar index rise back? Here is our analysis:
Dow Jones (45,577.47)
As expected, the Dow Jones fell breaking below the support at 46,450. This has cleared the way for the fall to 45,000 that we have been expecting for some time.
The region between 45,000 and 44,900 is a strong support zone. There are good chances for the Dow to bounce back from this support zone. Such a bounce can take the index higher to 46,000-46,500 in the short term. We will have to wait and see if this corrective rise can extend beyond 46,500 or not.
Can the Dow Jones break 44,900? The chances cannot be ruled out. If that happens, 44,200-44,000 can be seen on the downside.
Our preference will be to see the Dow sustaining above 44,900 on its first test and get a bounce.
S&P 500 (6,506.48)
The resistance at 6,750 capped the upside last week in line with our expectation. The break and fall below 6,600 has happened as expected.
The downside is open to see 6,400-6,380. After this fall, we can expect the S&P 500 index to bounce back towards 6,600 again.
Intermediate support is around 6,460-6,450. If the index manages to bounce back from here this week, then a corrective bounce from here to 6,550-6,600 is possible first. Subsequently, the aforementioned fall to 6,400-6,380 can happen.
NASDAQ Composite (21,647.61)
A crucial support is coming up at 21,350-21,200 which can be tested this week. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. A bounce from this support zone can trigger a corrective rise to 21,900-22,000. But, thereafter, the index can fall back again.
That leg of fall can drag the NASDAQ Composite index down to 20,300-20,000 in the coming weeks.
Dollar outlook
The dollar index (99.50) seems to have failed to get a strong follow-through rise last week. It oscillated around 100 all through the week.
The bias remains positive. Strong support is in the 99-98.85 region which can limit the downside from here. A fresh leg of rise from this support zone can take the dollar index up to 101 in the short term.
As mentioned last week, the broader bias is positive. The dollar index has potential to breach 101 and rise to 103-104 in the medium term.
Treasury Yield
The support around 4.18 per cent mentioned last week held very well. The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.38 per cent) touched a low of 4.17 per cent and then has surged from there. Indeed, it has risen well beyond our expected level of 4.3 per cent.
The outlook remains bullish and the momentum looks strong. The region around 4.3 per cent will now be a good support zone. As long as the 10Yr Yield remains above this support, there is potential to see 4.6 per cent on the upside.
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield has potential to target 4.6 per cent
Published on March 21, 2026
