West Bengal Election 2026: Women, Muslims, illegal migrants, or Hindus? Since the TMC came to power in 2011, the rivals have failed to decode her votebank formation. She is loved by Muslims, openly announces lakhs of rupees in support for Durga pandals, and runs one of the most popular women’s support schemes. This may be one of the reasons why Banerjee, despite the BJP’s muscle and financial power in poll campaigns, has remained at the helm of Bengal, unchallenged. 

As Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), gear up for the crucial 2026 West Bengal Assembly election, attention is turning to the factors that could work in her favour and shape the electoral outcome. Since assuming power in 2011, Banerjee has built a significant political base in West Bengal through welfare programmes and targeted outreach to key voter groups. With the upcoming polls expected to be fiercely contested, the support of certain social groups could play a decisive role in influencing the outcome.

To understand which voter group may come forward as the biggest political shield for Banerjee and her party is important because West Bengal’s electoral landscape is shaped by factors including: demographic shifts, government’s welfare policies, and strategic voting patterns. 

Two groups, women and minority voters, could be critical groups for the ruling party. Their voting behaviour could play a decisive role in determining whether the TMC can retain power in West Bengal.

According to Kunal Debnath, PhD, Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Rabindra Bharati University, both groups are significant to the TMC’s electoral strategy, but minority voters remain the party’s most stable base. 

“We have seen a strong consolidation of Muslim voters behind TMC, with 73 per cent of Muslim votes going to the party in the 2024 election, an increase of 13 per cent from 2019,” Debnath said. 

He added that minority voters are electorally crucial because they influence around 120 assembly constituencies, and in areas with large Muslim populations the TMC secured most seats. 

He further explained that this remains true despite the presence of parties such as the Janata Unnayan Party (JUP) led by Humayun Kabir.

At the same time, Debnath observed that women-centric welfare schemes have had a substantial electoral impact in consolidating women voters. 

Debnath pointed out that schemes such as Lakshmir Bhandar and Kanyashree have played a significant role in building loyalty among women voters. 

“According to CSDS-Lokniti data, 53 per cent of women voted for TMC in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, which is 11 per cent higher than in 2019,” he said. 

According to him, women-centric welfare programmes have been highly effective in consolidating women voters, contributing significantly to TMC’s electoral advantage.

Controversies or allegations affected Mamata’s support among women voters?

When former TMC MLA Humayun Kabir announced plans related to the construction of the Babri Mosque in West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared ready to launch a strong political attack on the ruling party. 

However, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee swiftly suspended Kabir from the party, effectively neutralising the issue before it could escalate into a major political controversy.

At the time, critics had speculated that the expulsion could hurt the TMC’s support base and affect its electoral prospects. However, Banerjee’s calculated silence and carefully timed decision ensured that the controversy did not significantly damage the party’s standing.

By acting quickly and decisively, she managed to contain a potentially damaging narrative.

Meanwhile, despite any recent controversies or allegations of corruption raised by opposition parties, Debnath believes that the impact on women voters has been limited. 

“Opposition parties campaigned heavily on corruption and governance failures, but these issues did not substantially alter voter preferences, especially in rural areas. Even though many voters believed corruption had increased, no single issue dominated electoral behaviour strongly enough to undermine TMC’s support. Welfare benefits and organisational outreach offset the negative impact of corruption allegations,” he said. 

Debnath added, “So, controversies and governance criticisms did not significantly weaken Mamata Banerjee’s support among women voters, largely because welfare benefits and organisational mobilisation remained stronger electoral factors.”

Looking ahead to the 2026 assembly election, Debnath argued that minority voters are likely to remain the decisive electoral shield for Banerjee’s political future. 

“My previous studies on the 2021 assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and also my current understanding, suggest that minority voters are likely to remain the decisive electoral shield for Mamata Banerjee in the future,” he said. 

As West Bengal moves closer to the 2026 assembly polls, the interplay between welfare-driven support among women and the strong consolidation of minority voters could remain central to the state’s political battle. 

While both groups are vital to the TMC’s electoral strategy, experts say that the minority vote may ultimately determine whether Mamata Banerjee can maintain her political dominance in Bengal.

Also check- Bengal election 2026: Factors that could hurt CM Mamata Banerjee’s TMC | Analysis