IBM said it had “faltered” in keeping pace with a shift in corporate spending towards data centre infrastructure from software and forecast second-quarter revenue below estimates, the clearest sign yet of AI’s growing toll on the sector.
The warning triggered a 22 per cent slump in IBM’s shares and a selloff in the broader software sector. It also dragged Dow futures lower, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell more than 4 per cent.
Software investors have long been on edge over fears that AI tools capable of automating routine work could pose an existential threat to the industry. Tuesday’s announcement showed that even the boom in spending on servers, chips and networking gear for AI was eating into software budgets.
“In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases,” IBM Chief Executive Officer Arvind Krishna said in a letter to investors.
“While we anticipated some supply-chain-related impact in our expectations, we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritisation,” Krishna said, adding that the company had “faltered” in adapting quickly enough and that “numerous large deals” had failed to close as expected.
According to the preliminary results, the company expects revenue of $17.2 billion during the quarter, compared with analysts’ estimate of $17.86 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $2.93, compared with the estimate of $3.02.
“This is an ugly moment for IBM and software stocks … the big question will be how long the shift to infrastructure and cybersecurity lasts,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group.
“A few more months might be bearable, but more than that and serious questions will be asked all over again about software stocks.”
Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce and Intuit fell between 3 per cent and 5 per cent.
IBM is expected to report second-quarter results on July 22.
